Liberal win in Wisconsin Supreme Court race could flip US House and state legislature

The newly elected Supreme Court justice of Wisconsin frequently mentioned the “rigged” maps of the state during her election campaign. Her victory promises to effect the state’s policies as she aims to address the issue and cause a significant shift in the battleground of the state, which might play a vital role in flipping the U.S. House in 2024.

The congressional districts of Wisconsin are redrawn every ten years to reflect the census population counts. The areas have been labeled among the most gerrymandered in the United States, thought by some to give Republicans an unfair advantage. The majority in the state legislature have been controlled by Republicans for years, partly due to the redrawn maps of 2011.

The Milwaukee Judge, Janet Protasiewicz, won an undoubted victory against conservative candidate Daniel Kelly for the first time since 2008, giving control of the court to the liberals, thus reopening a once-closed redistricting case. Democrats filed a lawsuit in 2015 and took the same case to the Supreme Court in 2019, causing it to become a state issue rather than a federal one. 

Although Wisconsin’s map of 2021 also leant to the Republicans, Protasiewicz’s win has opened a doorway to mend the playing field, although not undoubtedly ensuring that the Democrats will take hold of the legislature, it could make races more competitive. Rob Yablon, an expert in redistricting, believes if the maps changed, it would raise “the possibility that there would be a meaningful fight for legislative control.”

Nathan Gonzales, an analyst at Inside Elections, also suggested that two U.S. House Republicans, Rep. Bryan Steil (R-WI), representing the 1st Congressional District, and Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI), representing the 3rd Congressional District, are at risk should their districts be redrawn.

It has been noted that the ramifications of the Supreme Court race could impact the U.S. House majority significantly in 2023. Democrats need to obtain five seats to turn control of the House. Democrats have expressed that with fair maps, they “could be shooting to flip at least two House seats, and that’s 40 percent of the national margin.”

Although the win of the new Wisconsin Supreme Court justice might seem like a cause for celebration for the Democratic Party after years of Republican control, it could potentially lead to further Republican control. The Republicans also won a supermajority in the state Senate on the same night, giving them the power to impeach state officials, including the current Democratic governor and possibly the state Supreme Court justices.