Maybe next time? Youngkin’s 2024 hopes likely dashed as GOP loses state House

It was always going to be a long shot for Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) to run for president in 2024. Now, that dream is all but gone.

Youngkin suffered a setback as Democrats took back the Virginia House of Delegates and held on to the state Senate, a set of races in which Youngkin campaigned heavily to support Republicans.

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“I think we see a real chance to get Virginia into overdrive,” Youngkin said Tuesday. “In a state that was lost just 24 months ago, truly all blue, has taken a right turn, and we have to finish the work today by holding our House and flipping the Senate.”

That was not to be, and prognosticators will have to decide if the key topic was the blue-leaning makeup of the Virginia electorate, dissatisfaction with Youngkin’s performance as governor, or his relatively strong embrace of a 15-week abortion ban.

Youngkin has been billed as a Hail Mary GOP presidential candidate on the heels of his 2021 upset win and a lackluster performance from the non-Donald Trump Republican campaigns. As a result, a lot was riding on whether or not Republicans could keep the Virginia House and flip the Senate.

The answer was no, and so Youngkin, if he’s interested, will have to look at 2028.

“Even if these elections went well for him, 2024 was going to be a bit of a stretch,” J. Miles Coleman of the University of Virginia Center for Politics said. “Some of the filing deadlines have passed, such as New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada. It was always going to be a bit of a long shot. This probably makes that even more out of the question.”

Republicans in the state pushed for voters to turn out in the traditionally low-enthusiasm off-year elections, particularly this year because Youngkin’s approval rating and legislative record generated some White House talk. Some Virginia Democrats even campaigned off of their ability to work with the Republican governor in their 2023 ads.

Coleman said the result was not all bad for Youngkin or his party. For one, Democrats won only slim control of the two legislative chambers. And for two, Youngkin can now campaign on how he fought against the Democrats rather than trying to push the envelope of what Virginia voters will tolerate with a Republican trifecta in Richmond.

“Youngkin is a conservative but has been checked by a split legislature,” Coleman said. “So, he wasn’t able to enact a lot of truly conservative policies in a blue state. Those are often the most popular governors — the ones who do nothing.”

A comparison could be made to Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY), who was checked by a Republican legislature and tacked to the middle during his successful reelection campaign in red Kentucky.

Money poured into Virginia’s election from within the state and across the nation. Four Democrats running in battleground state Senate districts received a heavy out-of-state donation for their races just six days before the 2023 election from a nonprofit group backed by Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL).

As in other states, abortion played a big role in campaigns. Youngkin pledged to sign an abortion limit at 15 weeks of gestation if Republicans took the legislature. Democrats, meanwhile, made abortion a focal point in their campaign messaging in the state, spending major money on ad campaigns blasting the GOP’s plans as “extreme” and “terrifying.”

Youngkin made his closing pitch on Fox News Tuesday morning, saying he’d rescued the state from Democratic rule and accusing the other party of pushing abortion because “that’s all they’ve got. They sell fear.”

“We’re the party of hope. They’re the party of fear, and hope beats fear every day of the week,” Youngkin said.

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But the message didn’t land on Tuesday night, and that likely means the end of Youngkin’s 2024 buzz.

“CLEARANCE SALE: all ‘Youngkin for President 2024’ merchandise,” University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato posted on X, formerly known as Twitter. “A free MyPillow comes with all purchases over $1. NO RETURNS.”