Mexican Cartels Will Control The Border And Mexico’s Judges

As President Trump promised during his campaign, tackling illegal immigration should be top of mind for the transition team, but mitigating the border crisis will be difficult as long as Mexican drug cartels have a vote. And thanks to a new constitutional amendment passed by Mexico’s congress, they will.

The cartels already operate with virtual impunity. Their ability to traffic drugs and humans across the border is seemingly unfettered by the Mexican judicial system, let alone by current U.S. efforts. A recent example is the discovery of five decapitated bodies and plastic-wrapped heads in northeastern Jalisco, Mexico. The notorious Jalisco New Generation drug cartel (the CJNG) is most likely to blame. To date, no arrests have been made. Since the beginning of the year, more than a thousand people have been murdered in Jalisco.

And when it comes to influencing elections, the cartels have a history of assassinating political candidates they don’t like. In the run-up to the 2024 Mexican presidential election alone, 37 candidates have been killed. 

Now the latest judicial reforms passed by the Mexican congress allow the cartels to train their sights on would-be judges. While the cartel have long intimidated or murdered witnesses who would testify against them, the new amendment might eliminate the need to do so. Cartel members will be able to vote in judges who won’t rule against them. And if they find exercising their democratic rights doesn’t get the job done, there is no reason to think judicial candidates won’t suffer the same fate as the fallen politicians.

Nevertheless, in September, President Sheinbaum’s Morena party’s super majority in congress voted to amend the Mexican constitution in the name of “judicial reform.” Judges will no longer be appointed; they will be elected. As of June 2025, Mexicans will be able to vote for local judges. In 2027, they will be able to vote for federal judges, including those sitting on the Supreme Court.

Sheinbaum’s predecessor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a.k.a. AMLO, argued improbably that dispensing with the judicial appointment process in favor of holding elections would rid the judiciary of corruption. AMLO’s critics contend the political power play has more to do with the consolidation of power than it does with the just rule of law. Further, in a stunning repudiation of meritocracy, the approved amendment eliminates any requisite qualifications for judges. Literally anyone with a law degree qualifies as a candidate for the bench; no previous experience is required.

During AMLO’s six-year term, 193,752 homicides were registered in Mexico. As of March 2024, almost 100,000 people have been reported missing. Most are assumed to be victims of cartel-related violence. Clearly, the cartels remain undeterred by the threat of prosecution and/or imprisonment. Now that potential judges will need to campaign for their seats, cartels could wield substantial influence over judicial elections, whether it be by way of indirect financing, voter intimidation, or both.

Filling judicial vacancies by popular vote threatens the independence of the judicial branch and increases the cartels’ ability to unduly influence Mexican courts. But bad state actors aren’t the only threat. Currently, the Morena party controls both the executive and legislative branches of government. Even if the cartels’ political influence is outweighed by the Morena party, the judicial branch is now suspectable to traditional political influence. Either way, if the judicial branch’s independence is threatened, so too is Mexican democracy writ large.

In September, U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ken Salazar said as much. The outgoing AMLO administration reacted strongly, accusing Washington of verbally violating Mexican sovereignty. Then-president Lopez Obrador went so far as to declare a diplomatic pause, which resolved after two weeks. Though diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Mexico were restored relatively quickly, the relationship between the new Sheinbaum administration and that of the new administration in the U.S. will no doubt be tested as the effects of the judicial reforms play out over time.

If in fact the cartels meddle in judicial elections, and there’s no reason to think they won’t, their influence will be difficult to check. The U.S. government and private companies alike might soon grapple with a judicial system whose compromised impartiality will surely not favor American interests, especially when it comes to curtailing cartel drug and human trafficking. While Trump promised U.S. voters to fix the border crisis, the Mexican cartel vote might make those promises impossible to keep.

Christine Balling is Senior Vice President at the Institute of World Politics and a former advisor to the U.S. Special Operations South commander and U.S. Army Civil Affairs teams deployed in Colombia.