Michigan’s undecided voters strongly signal their concerns to Biden regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict
Grassroots Campaign Sends Message to President Biden in Michigan Democratic Primary
In the Michigan Democratic primary, President Joe Biden emerged as the clear winner. However, a grassroots campaign aimed at expressing dissatisfaction with his response to the Israel-Hamas war exceeded expectations, highlighting the growing discontent within his own party.
The Associated Press declared Biden the winner shortly after the polls closed at 9 p.m. Although he secured 80% of the vote in an uncontested race, approximately 15% of voters marked themselves as ”uncommitted” with about a fifth of the ballots counted.
Led by Muslim and Arab American voters, the organizers set a modest goal of 10,000 uncommitted votes, equivalent to the margin of victory in Michigan during the 2016 election. Surprisingly, this goal was quickly surpassed.
In comparison, four years ago, Biden received 840,360 votes (53%), while Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) earned 576,926 votes (36%). Only 1% of Democrats voted as uncommitted.
“Our movement emerged victorious tonight and massively surpassed our expectations,”
posted one organizing group, Listen to Michigan, on Tuesday night. “Tens of thousands of Michigan Democrats, many of whom voted for Biden in 2020, are uncommitted to his re-election due to the war in Gaza.”
Michigan’s primaries, both Democratic and Republican, are the first nominating contests to be held in a battleground state before the general election in November. Former President Donald Trump easily won the Michigan GOP primary, receiving 67% of the vote compared to former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley’s 28%, with 30% of the vote counted.
Multiple organizations, primarily based in Michigan’s Arab and Muslim communities, supported the uncommitted effort. These include the Listen to Michigan campaign, which includes Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) among its proponents. They have indicated that they are more likely to vote for Biden in the general election. On the other hand, the Abandon Biden campaign continues to encourage people not to vote for Biden, even in November.
“I’m not going to be scared into voting for Biden,”
said Samra’a Luqman, co-chair of the Abandon Biden campaign in Michigan, to the Washington Examiner. “I think it’s a real insult to Muslims in the United States to act as if we don’t know what living through a Trump presidency would mean.”
The Listen to Michigan campaign had hoped for at least 10,000 uncommitted votes, which was Trump’s margin of victory over Hillary Clinton in Michigan in 2016. In 2020, Biden won the state by 154,000 votes. To provide perspective, there are 100,000 Arab Americans in the city of Dearborn, which borders Detroit, and 146,000 American Muslims registered to vote statewide.
“I was proud today to walk in and pull a Democratic ballot and vote uncommitted,”
said Tlaib in a video posted on social media. “We must protect our democracy, we must make sure that our government is about us, about the people.”
Michigan has seen protest votes of uncommitted voters in the past, including in 2008 when Hillary Clinton and in 2012 when former President Barack Obama faced similar challenges. These protest votes were in response to Biden’s suggestion of a ceasefire in Gaza the following week. In 2008, Clinton received 55% of the votes compared to 40% uncommitted. In 2012, Obama received 89% of the votes compared to 11% uncommitted.
Concerns about Biden’s age, minority outreach, the economy, and the border have led to discussions about the impact of uncommitted votes on his candidacy. However, Matthew Grossmann, Director of the Michigan State University Institute of Public Policy and Social Research, believes that while it is a problem for Biden, it may not be the biggest challenge he faces within the community in November.
“The situation that’s going on with Israel and Palestine breaks my heart, but I’m not in agreement with some Democrats, like Andy Levin, suggesting that we vote uncommitted because anything that can give Donald Trump an opportunity to become our president again is detrimental to my family,”
said Jackie Kelly-Smith, the Macomb County Democratic Committee’s black caucus chair and a retired UAW worker. “I believe in a ceasefire, but I also believe in releasing the hostages. I believe that Israel has a right to protect their land, but I don’t believe in genocide.”
According to RealClearPolitics, Trump currently holds a 5 percentage point advantage over Biden in head-to-head Michigan polls, with 47% support compared to Biden’s 42%. However, this does not account for independent candidates, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. When considering other candidates, Trump’s nationwide lead over Biden increases from 2% to 3%.
Biden has received the endorsement of the United Auto Workers union, a significant political organization in Michigan. However, the state’s car manufacturing industry has grappled with the president’s green policies, including his approach to electric vehicles. Trump argues that rank-and-file members of the union remain loyal to him.
“[Trump] fools our members, here’s my point, just like he fools the general public,”
said former Michigan AFL-CIO president Mark Gaffney. “So we always had 15, 20% of our members voting Republican, but now with Trump, it’s as much as twice that.”
Biden did not visit Michigan before the primary, instead sending Vice President Kamala Harris the week before. The Michigan Democratic Party will hold a virtual call with Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) and Cory Booker (D-NJ), both Biden campaign co-chairs, rather than hosting an election watch party.
Over 1 million Michigan voters cast their ballots early in 2024, representing a 13% increase in pre-Election Day voting compared to 2020. In the 2020 Democratic primary, only 1.6 million voters participated.
Click here to read more from the Washington Examiner.
What impact do the uncommitted votes in the primary have on Biden’s candidacy, particularly in relation to concerns about his age, minority outreach, the economy, and the border?
Commissioner, in an interview with the Detroit Free Press.
The uncommitted movement in the Michigan Democratic primary serves as a clear message to President Biden that there is growing discontent within his own party regarding his response to the Israel-Hamas war. Led by Muslim and Arab American voters, this grassroots campaign aimed to express dissatisfaction and highlight the concerns of a significant portion of the electorate.
Despite Biden emerging as the clear winner in the primary, with 80% of the vote in an uncontested race, approximately 15% of voters marked themselves as “uncommitted” with about a fifth of the ballots counted. This exceeded the modest goal set by the organizers of 10,000 uncommitted votes, equivalent to the margin of victory in Michigan during the 2016 election.
Multiple organizations, primarily based in Michigan’s Arab and Muslim communities, supported the uncommitted effort. The Listen to Michigan campaign, which includes Rep. Rashida Tlaib among its proponents, indicated that they are more likely to vote for Biden in the general election. However, the Abandon Biden campaign continues to encourage people not to vote for Biden, even in November.
The impact of uncommitted votes on Biden’s candidacy has sparked discussions about concerns regarding his age, minority outreach, the economy, and the border. However, Matthew Grossmann, Director of the Michigan State University Institute of Public Policy and Social Research, believes that while it is a problem for Biden, it may not be the biggest challenge he faces within the community in November.
Michigan has seen protest votes of uncommitted voters in the past, including during the 2008 and 2012 primaries. These protest votes were in response to Biden’s suggestion of a ceasefire in Gaza the following week. In 2008, Clinton received 55% of the votes compared to 40% uncommitted. In 2012, Obama received 89% of the votes compared to 11% uncommitted.
While the uncommitted movement in the Michigan Democratic primary may not affect the outcome of the primary itself, it sends a strong message to President Biden. It highlights the growing discontent within his own party and the need for him to address the concerns of Muslim and Arab American voters. As the first nominating contests held in a battleground state before the general election in November, Michigan’s primaries serve as an important indicator of the sentiment within the party and the challenges that lie ahead for Biden’s candidacy.
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