Nebraska’s Electoral College vote crucial for Biden’s blue wall

OMAHA, Nebraska — The road to President Joe Biden’s reelection bid runs through … deep-red Nebraska?

It may sound strange, considering the Midwestern state last backed a Democratic presidential candidate in 1964. And former President Donald Trump in 2020, losing the White House to Biden, still romped to victory in the Cornhusker State 59% to 39%.

Yet a confluence of Electoral College math oddities and Nebraska’s status as a rare state where the winner doesn’t necessarily take all in presidential elections means Biden has to win in a greater Omaha congressional district to avoid a first-ever Electoral College tie at 269-269.

That’s a plausible scenario if Biden does well but not spectacularly in winning key swing states. Specifically, if he wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the vaunted “blue wall” trio that went Democratic six straight times from 1992 to 2012, but loses other swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, he and Trump would end up tied at 269 electoral votes apiece. The race would be decided by the House of Representatives in a contingent election.

This is a shift in Electoral College math from even four years ago. Back then, winning the three “blue wall” states would have been enough to give Biden a second term.

What changed? Reapportionment among states over how many congressional districts each gets. And that affects where votes lie in the Electoral College.

After the 2020 census, due to population growth, Texas gained two House seats. Gaining one House seat were Colorado, Florida, Montana, Oregon, and North Carolina. Other states grew slowly over the decade leading up to the 2020 national population count or, in some cases, outright lost population. So, losing one House seat each were California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

The House seat and, by extension, Electoral College gains largely went to states that backed Trump over Biden, and losses were heavier in blue areas. Without a single 2024 general election vote cast yet, Biden’s 306-232 win over Trump is reduced by three, to 303-235.

Nebraska’s proportional electors

The dicier Electoral College math for Biden now is forcing his campaign to look at Nebraska as a possible tiebreaker since Nebraska is one of two states, along with Maine, to allocate its electors proportionally. Nebraska doles out two of its five electoral votes based on the statewide winner — sure to be Trump again. But who the other three go to depends on which presidential candidate wins those congressional districts.

Two Nebraska House seats are safely Republican. But the Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District is very much in play. In fact, Biden in 2020 won the district 52.2% to 46.8% — and that single electoral vote. This had happened once before, in 2008, when Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama (with Biden as his running mate) won the 2nd Congressional District.

The single Nebraska seat that’s winnable for Team Biden is on its political radar. Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff, the husband of Vice President Kamala Harris, visited Omaha on March 19. Emhoff talked up Biden’s record and said things were “terrible” during Trump’s administration.

“We have to win,” he told attendees at an Omaha campaign rally. “We have no choice if you care about this country, you care about freedom, and you care about democracy.”

But some Republicans and MAGAworld figures have also taken notice of the possible make-or-break status of Nebraska’s electoral votes for the presidential campaign. Gov. Jim Pillen (R-NE) recently called on state legislators to take steps that would implement a winner-take-all system. Republicans, in control of Nebraska’s unicameral legislature, rejected that proposal during the spring legislative session.

Pillen has said he could call state lawmakers back into a special legislative session if there are enough votes to change the electoral system.

“I look forward to partnering with legislative leaders to [move] it forward in a special session, when there is sufficient support in the Legislature to pass it,” Pillen posted on X on April 10. “I will sign [winner-take-all] into law the moment the Legislature gets it to my desk.”

It’s also a matter MAGA activist Charlie Kirk has emphasized on his podcast, even traveling to Nebraska to hold an April 9 rally aimed at pressuring GOP lawmakers.

“Nebraska could pick a president,” Kirk said at the rally. “You better believe that that message is being heard in the Capitol.”

Though Democrats do have a political insurance policy of their own, halfway across the country in Maine. The Pine Tree State in presidential elections is safely Democratic statewide. Yet one of its two House districts tends to go the other way. Trump won the sprawling northern Maine 2nd Congressional District in 2016 and 2020.

In Maine’s capital of Augusta, Democrats have full control of state government, holding the governorship and both chambers of the legislature. If Nebraska changes its Electoral College rules to winner-take-all to help Trump, Maine will try to do the same to counteract that impact, Maine’s state House majority leader said in an April 26 statement.

“Voters in Maine and voters in Maine’s 2nd congressional district value their independence, but they also value fairness and playing by the rules,” Democratic state Rep. Maureen Terry said. “If Nebraska’s Republican governor and Republican-controlled Legislature were to change their electoral system this late in the cycle to unfairly award Donald Trump an additional electoral vote, I think the Maine Legislature would be compelled to act in order to restore fairness to our country’s electoral system. It is my hope and the hope of my colleagues in Maine that the Nebraska Republican Party decides not to make this desperate and ill-fated attempt to sway the 2024 election.”

Competitive House race, too

The growing focus on Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District in presidential politics inevitably raises its stake in the fight for House control. Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) first won the seat in 2016 by beating a Democratic incumbent. Bacon is among 18 House Republicans in districts that would have been won by Biden four years ago, compared to only five Democrats in the inverse situation, holding seats where Trump would have prevailed.

Bacon faces a rematch against Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas. Bacon won 50.8% to 48.6%. But the political playing field figures to be different in a presidential year, particularly with the Biden campaign likely to pay a lot of attention to the 2nd Congressional District.

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Bacon has carved out a center-right profile in the House. He was a strong proponent of the military aid package for Ukraine that eventually became law but faced strong resistance from MAGA-style lawmakers such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA). First elected in 2016 after a military career in the Air Force, Bacon previously pushed for a pathway to citizenship for young immigrants brought to the country illegally by their parents. In December 2020, he was one of just seven House Republicans to vote with Democrats to continue the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, which protects young immigrants.

That approach makes sense politically in the 2nd Congressional District, which has a significant Latino population. It’s a political recipe for more attention being paid by Team Biden to Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Which will, in turn, likely ratchet up efforts by Trump’s campaign to ensure Omaha-area voters return to the Republican fold for the first time since 2016.