The dueling abortion-related measures, Initiative 439 and Initiative 434, propose drastically different laws to amend the state constitution. The first would enshrine abortion rights up until fetal viability, or roughly 24 weeks, while the latter would look to build on current state restrictions to ban abortion in the second and third trimesters, with exceptions for rape, incest, or medical emergencies.

But the two measures are also expected to boost voter turnout in Nebraska, a state that will have direct implications on the presidential election and party control of Congress.

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For either initiative to pass, the ballot measure must get a majority of votes and receive the support of at least 35% of those who cast ballots. In the case that both measures pass, the one with the highest number of votes will win. 

The state Supreme Court approved both proposed amendments in mid-September, setting in motion the unusual circumstance of having competing initiatives on the ballot.

Initiative 439 was drafted earlier this year in response to the state government imposing an abortion ban after 12 weeks of pregnancy. Shortly after, anti-abortion groups countered with their own initiative that wouldn’t expand restrictions in its current form but would make it possible for lawmakers to attach further bans later on — and make it more difficult for the legislature or courts to roll back the restrictions. 

That effort, abortion-rights advocates say, was largely motivated to stoke confusion. 

“They don’t really have any interest in 434 passing. They’re just trying to confuse voters. And we know they’re doing that because they don’t have a popular opinion,” Allie Berry, campaign manager for Protect Our Rights, told the Washington Examiner. 

Berry pointed to reports that canvassers for the Protect Women and Children campaign, one of the main groups behind Initiative 434, misrepresented their proposal when getting voters to sign on to their petition. Some canvassers even misled voters by saying their initiative would protect abortion access, according to Berry, leading to more than 300 signers submitting affidavits requesting their names be removed from the petition. 

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Members of the Protect Women and Children campaign denied those efforts, telling the Washington Examiner that canvassers were instructed to read an object statement to voters that clearly stipulates the amendment would only apply to “abortion in the second and third trimesters.”

The group also rejected claims that canvassers told voters the petition was an abortion-rights measure. Furthermore, they noted, more than 205,000 signatures were verified and certified by the secretary of state, far surpassing the 136,000-minimum threshold even with the unintended signatures thrown out.

“439 is an extreme measure funded by out of state activists that could give men a right to abortion, puts individuals who are not licensed physicians in a position to influence women in crisis, and protects human traffickers and abusers,” Brenna Grasz, spokesperson for Protect Women and Children, said in a statement. “434 is a common-sense measure that makes exceptions for rape and incest as well as medical emergencies, preserves parental rights, and protects unborn children in the second and third trimesters.”

Still, Berry argued efforts to further restrict abortion access threatened to “muddy the waters and confuse voters” despite widespread support.

“The majority of Nebraskans, no matter how they might personally feel about abortion, do agree it’s not something that the government should be interfering with,” Berry said. “And the opposition knows that.”

Fifty percent of Nebraskans believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while only 46% say it should be illegal, according to a survey by the Pew Research Center. 

The division in support leaves things uncertain for the future of abortion access as voters submit their ballots in the days leading up to Election Day.

As a result, both groups have poured millions of dollars into their respective ad campaigns and outreach messaging to educate voters on the competing measures. 

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Both groups also have invested heavily in ads featuring Nebraskans either in support of or opposition to abortion restrictions. One such ad highlights Omaha resident Kimberly Paseka and her recent medical emergency that was caused by confusion surrounding the state’s current abortion law. 

Paseka recounted how she visited a doctor while she was pregnant with her second child when she received news the baby would not survive her pregnancy. However, the doctor was reluctant to perform an abortion because of the new state restrictions and instead advised Paseka to go home and wait to miscarry. 

That took three weeks before Paseka could return, during which she said she “suffered with pain and bleeding.” 

“I needed medical intervention but because of the confusing abortion ban, I was sent home. This could happen to anyone,” she said in the ad. “So please vote against 434 and for 439 to get government out of personal medical decisions.”

Meanwhile, anti-abortion advocates released their own ad campaign featuring testimony from six female student-athletes at the University of Nebraska who urged voters to vote in favor of Initiative 434. 

“Nebraska, it’s time to get off the bench,” Jordyn Bahl, a junior on the school’s softball team, said in the ads.

But the million-dollar push could do more than just determine abortion access as it could drive voter turnout among Democrats in a state that may have outsize influence over the presidential election. 

Nebraska operates under a congressional district method, meaning the state allocates two electoral votes to the candidate who wins the statewide popular vote and then awards one electoral vote to the winner of the popular vote in each congressional district. Nebraska has three congressional districts, creating four popular vote contests in the state, often leading to a split electoral outcome.

As a result, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District holds one of the most coveted electoral votes in the country — and could determine the November election if it comes down to just one vote, which has become a real possibility with the way the electoral map is shaking out. 

That’s good news for Democrats as the district contains much of the Omaha-Council Bluffs metropolitan area, a blue dot in an otherwise red state. The district voted for President Barack Obama in 2008 as well as President Joe Biden in 2020, and the party largely expects it to back Vice President Kamala Harris on Nov. 5.

The district is also at the heart of the battle for control of the House of Representatives as Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) is locked in a tight reelection fight against Democratic challenger Tony Vargas. The race is deemed a toss-up and could determine which party will win control of the lower chamber.