Niger coup plotters resist US, pleasing Russia.

President⁢ Biden’s Administration Faces Challenges in ‍Thwarting Coup Plot in⁢ West Africa

The Biden ‍administration is facing growing doubts⁣ about its ⁣ability to prevent a coup plot against a key ally in West Africa, Niger. ‍Despite the military ⁣junta’s relative isolation, the State Department remains realistic about the ⁣situation.

“We do still have ⁢hope, but we are also very realistic,” said State Department spokesman Matthew‌ Miller. “At the ​same time, we are making clear, including in direct conversations with‍ the junta leaders, what the consequences are of failing to return to the constitutional order.”

A Defiant Military Junta

The would-be military dictator, Abdourahamane Tchiani, has taken a​ defiant stance. He refused to meet with the State Department’s⁣ second-highest-ranking official⁣ and warned against any regional delegation entering the ⁣country.

“They’re in an active ⁤effort to ‍try and⁢ consolidate their position,” said Dr.‌ Daniel Eizenga, a research fellow at the National Defense University’s Africa Center for Strategic Studies. “They’re looking to solidify ‌their position before engaging in⁤ any further diplomatic efforts to resolve the situation.”

Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s acting ⁢top deputy‌ attempted negotiations but was denied a meeting with Tchiani and ⁤received⁢ a‌ cold welcome from ⁤his top defense deputy.

“They are‌ quite firm in their view on how they want to proceed,⁤ and it ⁣does not comport with the ​constitution⁤ of Niger,” said acting Deputy Secretary of State ​Victoria Nuland. “So again,‌ we were very frank about‍ what’s at ⁢stake. We‍ kept open the door to continue talking. But again, it was difficult today, and I will ‌be straight up about that.”

International Support and Concerns

The level of ⁤support Tchiani can expect from abroad remains uncertain. While Russia initially condemned ⁤the ⁢coup plot, other Moscow-backed military regimes in​ the ‍region have expressed support for Tchiani. However, doubts remain about the true‍ nature‍ of ‍public support.

“People assume that because ⁤you see people ‌on the streets, it is⁤ an expression of actual support rather ⁢than people who might have been​ paid to ‌show up at protests,” Miller said. “It does seem odd⁢ to me that if ​your country is suffering an‍ attempted military takeover, the idea​ that the first⁤ thing anyone would do is run to a store and buy a Russian flag. That strikes me as somewhat⁣ an unlikely scenario.”

Russia implicitly praised Tchiani for ‍rebuffing Nuland’s overture, while the detention of President Bazoum has sparked a diplomatic storm. ‍The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)⁤ is⁢ considering military intervention if sanctions ‍and a blockade fail to sway the junta leaders.

Seeking a Compromise

While some ‌may believe that military intervention is⁣ the only solution, experts urge ECOWAS and ⁢the junta to seek a compromise to avoid further conflict in the region.

“This would be a disaster for a region where war has already taken so many lives. Instead, ECOWAS and the junta (CNSP) need to‍ seek a compromise,”‍ said Dr. Tatiana Smirnova, an‍ expert on the Sahel region.

Nigerian‍ officials are considering⁣ their‌ options, but the country’s senate has signaled opposition to military ‌intervention. Tchiani’s co-conspirators have cited economic pressure as a⁢ reason to refuse‌ discussions with‍ mediators.

A Delicate Balance

The junta’s truculent posture may not reflect⁣ the​ true level of support within the ⁢Nigerien military. While some military leaders do‌ not support the coup, Bazoum’s vulnerability leaves‍ them​ helpless. However, the junta’s dependence ⁤on‌ U.S. and international aid also‍ puts them in​ a vulnerable position if⁤ aid is withdrawn.

“They‍ don’t have a ⁤lot of leverage”⁢ beyond holding Bazoum in custody,⁣ according to Eizenga. “When‍ they’re unable to pay the soldiers… ⁤it’ll be a pretty quick change of⁤ pace for what kind of support they have within the ​military.”

While the ⁣situation remains uncertain, U.S. officials ‌are ⁢determined⁢ to continue pressing for a return ⁢to democracy and the constitutional order ​in Niger.