NY Fed survey shows widespread decline in inflation expectations.
Americans Expect Weaker Inflation, Improved Personal Finances
By Michael S. Derby
In a recent survey released by the New York Federal Reserve, Americans expressed their expectations of weaker inflation in the coming years. However, they also reported more positive views of their personal financial situations.
The survey conducted by the New York Fed revealed that respondents expect inflation a year from now to be around 3.5%, down from the previous expectation of 3.8% in June. This marks the lowest reading since April 2021. Expectations for inflation at the three- and five-year horizons also moderated to 2.9% from 3%, according to the New York Fed.
The decline in inflation expectations coincided with a decrease in price pressures across various categories. The survey showed that Americans predicted lower inflation rates for gasoline, food, medical costs, college costs, and rent. Notably, the expectation for rising home prices decreased slightly from 2.9% in June to 2.8% in July.
These findings come at a time when key measures of inflation have been cooling down. The moderation has raised questions about whether the U.S. central bank will need to raise interest rates again, following a recent quarter-point increase to the 5.25%-5.50% range.
The decrease in expected inflation is seen as a positive sign for the outlook on price pressures, as policymakers consider the predicted path of inflation to strongly influence its current state.
The survey also revealed more positive sentiments regarding personal finance and the job market. Respondents reported improved views of their personal financial situations compared to a year ago, with a rise in those expecting better circumstances in the future. This optimism reached its highest level since September 2021. Additionally, expectations for the job market improved relative to the previous month.
(Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Paul Simao)
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