New Challenges Ahead: Key Points to Monitor in Maryland Primaries for Congressional Control

Deep-blue Maryland has been a stronghold for Democrats in general elections for decades. But with a popular former Republican governor running for an open Senate seat and eight House races, the Old Line State could spring a few surprises this November. In this series, Old Line, New Battles: Maryland feels the primary pinch, the Washington Examiner will look at the key figures and important issues six months until Election Day. Part seven will focus on the most critical Maryland primary races to follow on Tuesday.

Maryland voters head to the polls Tuesday, where registered Republicans and Democrats will make their choices in several House races and a key Senate race that has become one of the most expensive races in state history.

The race for retiring Sen. Ben Cardin’s (D-MD) seat has become increasingly competitive, with former Gov. Larry Hogan running in the GOP Senate primary, boosting Republicans’ chances to flip the seat, and Democrats choosing between two candidates in an intraparty battle that has at times become nasty.

Eight House races will also be on Maryland’s May 14 primary ballot, with three open races and five races that have incumbents, including Rep. Andy Harris (R-MD) and Democratic Reps. Glenn Ivey, Steny Hoyer, Kweisi Mfume, and Jamie Raskin, who are expected to win their party’s nomination.

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have already clinched their party’s presidential nomination, but voters still have the option of casting their votes for other candidates or as “uncommitted” in the Democratic primary.

Republicans can opt to vote for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in the GOP primary, while Democrats have the option of voting “uncommitted to any presidential candidate” or for Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) and author Marianne Williamson in the primary.

Polls are open Tuesday from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Here are the key races to watch:

Democrats’ tough primary choice

Rep. David Trone (D-MD) and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks are the top two candidates out of 10 running to succeed Cardin in the Senate. But the race between the two has turned bitter at times.

Trone has faced pushback from black leaders who criticized a campaign ad against Alsobrooks questioning her ability to serve in the upper chamber. In the ad, a black official claimed the Senate was not a place for “training wheels,” which prompted more than 650 black female leaders to denounce the comment.

The line was later removed from the ad.

The two candidates were virtually tied, 42% for Alsobrooks and 41% for Trone, in an Emerson College Polling/the Hill/DC News Now survey released last week.

Should Alsobrooks win the primary she could make history by becoming Maryland’s first black female senator and the third black woman elected to the Senate. She has the backing of Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD) and Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), two of the most important leaders in the state.

But Trone has a formidable fundraising advantage as the co-owner of Total Wine & More, pouring millions of his own money into the campaign. Trone also has the backing of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), himself a prominent black leader.

Hogan to take big step in effort to flip Maryland Senate seat

In deep-blue Maryland, Hogan’s surprise run for the Senate seat jolted a race into national intrigue. The popular former governor seeks to flip the reliably Democratic Senate seat in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 1980.

Hogan, a centrist Republican and famously anti-Trump, claims that his middle-of-the-road stance will resonate with Maryland voters.

“I’m not running for one party or against one party,” Hogan said at a campaign event earlier this month. “Either way, I’m a huge underdog.”

Hogan is the heavy favorite of the seven candidates running to win the GOP primary. However, his attempt to flip the Senate seat could be stymied in November by a ballot measure that, if approved, would enshrine abortion access into the state’s constitution.

Democrats volley to replace Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger

The 2nd Congressional District, which encompasses much of Baltimore and Carroll counties and a portion of the city of Baltimore, features six Democrats running to replace 11-term Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D-MD), who announced his retirement earlier this year.

On the GOP side, three candidates are running to flip the seat in November. The seat will likely remain in Democratic hands, as the Cook Political Report listed it as “solid Democrat.”

Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski Jr. is the likely favorite to win the Democratic primary on Tuesday. He has the backing of Ruppersberger and Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD).

Jan. 6 officer runs for 3rd Congressional District

Retired police officer Harry Dunn is among the 22 Democrats running to replace retiring Rep. John Sarbanes (D-MD) in Maryland’s 3rd Congressional District, which covers Howard County as well as parts of Carroll and Anne Arundel counties.

Nine Republicans are running in the primary to replace Sarbanes in the lower chamber.

Dunn gained national prominence during the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot and the subsequent congressional committee investigating the riot, which has led to a financial advantage in the primary at $4.5 million, according to OpenSecrets.

He faces some competition from state Sens. Sarah Elfreth and Clarence Lam, who are the two other frontrunners in the primary.

The United Democracy Project, a super PAC for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, is backing Elfreth while Dunn has the backing of high-profile Democratic leaders including Reps. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Jim Clyburn (D-SC), and Adam Schiff (D-CA).

The Cook Political Report also listed the seat as “solid Democrat,” meaning it is less likely to flip for Republicans.

Republicans seek to flip Trone’s old seat

Maryland’s 6th Congressional District is an open seat as Trone, who represented the district, is seeking to replace Cardin.

In a crowded field, 16 Democrats are running to replace Trone and seven Republicans are hoping to flip the seat.

Former U.S. Commerce Department official April McClain Delaney and state Delegate Joe Vogel are the top two contenders on the Democratic side. Delaney also has the backing of Pelosi, Hoyer, and Ruppersberger.

The National Education Association, Sierra Club, and the Human Rights Campaign are backing Vogel.

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Yet the 6th District remains the best chance for Republicans to pick up a seat after a favorable redistricting process and as the Cook Political Report rates the seat as “likely Democrat.”

Two of the leading Republican candidates are Trump supporter and former state Delegate Dan Cox, who ran for governor in 2022 against now-Gov. Wes Moore, and former state Delegate Neil Parrott, who has won the Republican nomination for the seat twice before.

Annabella Rosciglione contributed to this story.