Only 10% of House races were competitive in 2022; improvement in 2024 seems unlikely

Only 10% of the House races in 2022 were competitive because of the new districts formed from the 2020 census, according to a report from Fix Our House.

In the last election, 90% of House races were determined by more than a 5% difference in votes, leaving only 10% of races competitive.

North Carolina redistricting may provide GOP with four additional seats in the House

The report also found that 35 of the 435 races were uncontested, with 16 only having one candidate and 19 only having a single major party candidate available in the ballot. The report criticized independent commissions for not doing enough to foster competitive House races.

The report stated, “States that used independent redistricting commissions saw only modest improvements in competitiveness and partisan fairness compared to those with maps drawn by state legislatures. While independent commissions are well-intentioned and one of the best approaches to fair districting within the single-winner district system, they are insufficient to fix the uncompetitive, unrepresentative nature of most congressional districts.”

Several gerrymandered districts were created with 2022 maps, and maps in some states may change again in 2024. The current maps are being questioned in court, and they will most likely result in less competitive races should the court reinstate the already struck-down maps.

North Carolina’s 14 House seats are now evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats, but the overturned map might have given the Republicans as many as 11 seats. If the court restores the overturned map, the Republicans may gain new seats.

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The report suggested that proportional representation was the solution to the lack of competitiveness and gerrymandering’s alleged disproportionate representation. Proportional representation would eliminate single-winner districts for House seats.

According to the report, “Single-winner congressional districts are the building blocks of a perfectly dysfunctional system. This redistricting cycle should be the last time we subject Americans to their failures. To fairly represent all Americans in the legislative body that is intended to do just that, we need to adopt proportional representation.”