Political Expert Mark Halperin Reveals Private Polls Are Looking Quite Different Than Numbers Shown in Media
Political analyst Mark Halperin has highlighted significant discrepancies between private and public polling regarding the electoral prospects of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. In a recent appearance, he noted that private polls indicate Trump may be outperforming public polls by about two percentage points in some states. Halperin argues that private polling is often more accurate as it targets likely voters more effectively, despite being more costly and time-consuming.
He expressed concerns for Harris, stating that she is facing challenges in key battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. While he does not claim she will lose all these states, he emphasizes that the Democratic camp is worried about her standing, particularly in Pennsylvania. He also indicated that Trump’s supporters are optimistic about his chances of securing crucial Sun Belt states and Pennsylvania, which would put Harris in a difficult position for winning the election.
Halperin’s analysis underscores a potential shift in dynamics as the electoral race progresses, with Trump gaining perceived momentum while Harris’s campaign faces mounting challenges.
Political expert Mark Halperin says private polls are showing a very different result than public ones in the contest between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
In an appearance Tuesday with Tucker Carlson, Halperin said that in many private polls, Trump is about two percentage points higher in some states than in public polls.
Halperin said that private polling is more exact, because it hones in on those people most likely to vote, which he said was a more time-consuming process, meaning that it costs more.
Public polls generally have a lower budget, which means, for example, less time is taken in locating Democrats needed to balance a survey, meaning that those most likely to respond — well-educated Democrats, who may be more liberal than others – are the ones who respond, he said.
Halperin made similar comments last week, according to Real Clear Politics.
“I just saw some new private polling today. That’s very robust private polling,” he said.
Harris, he said, is “in a lot of trouble.”
“Here’s how I framed it this morning in my newsletter. The conversation I’m having with Trump people and Democrats with data are extremely bullish on Trump’s chances in the last 48 hours, extremely bullish.”
Halperin said Harris is wobbly in states she needs to win.
“You think of the seven battleground states, which ones is Harris in danger of losing? I would say Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. I’m not saying she’ll lose all six, but she’s in danger,” he said.
Halperin indicated the chances of Harris losing Nevada are less stark.
“Democrats will tell you they’re worried about those six. They’re less worried about the seven. I don’t know any Trump person who says they’re worried about losing any of the seven,” he said.
He said Trump supporters are not over-confident, but believe they have momentum.
Halperin said that “if the whole thing’s about the Electoral College, you take any of the Rust Belt states away from her, it’s very difficult for her to win. Very difficult.”
“It’s not mathematically impossible, but it probably won’t happen if she loses any of them. She can replace Pennsylvania with either Georgia, North Carolina, and then one other of the Sunbelt states. If she loses Pennsylvania and she wins either Georgia or North Carolina, then she just needs one of the other three,” he said.
“That’s not impossible, but what I’m telling you today is things are not moving right for her,” he said.
On Tuesday, in comments posted by Newsweek, Halperin said some Republicans are very bullish on Trump.
“Trump is going to lock up the Sun Belt states, probably all four, but at least three. And then he’s going to win Pennsylvania, and that checkmates [Harris],” Halperin said, outlining what many Republicans believe.
“They may be wrong. But there’s a not insignificant number of them who are quite confident of that. And the data they’ve seen on the absentees and the early votes and the voter registration … makes them more confident,” he said, later adding that despite comments made weeks before the election, “That doesn’t mean Harris is going to lose, but it is an asymmetry in my reporting that comes from a variety of people connected to the campaigns and not connected to the campaigns.”
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