Poll: GOP Candidate Leads Governor’s Race by 2 Points in Deep Blue Oregon

Deep-blue Oregon could elect a Republican as its next governor in November thanks to a particular set of circumstances that have lined up in the GOP’s favor.

Republican candidate Christine Drazan led her Democratic opponent, Tina Kotek, by 2 points in an Emerson College poll this week. It was the latest sign that the party in control of Oregon for decades is struggling to convince voters to give Democrats more time at the helm.

“I think this is maybe the most fascinating and surprising governor’s race in the country,” Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for the Cook Political Report, told the Washington Examiner. “You have kind of a confluence of different things that are giving Republicans a unique opportunity.”

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No Republican has won an Oregon gubernatorial race in 40 years, giving Oregon one of the longest unbroken streaks of Democratic control in the country.

Despite the decidedly liberal bent of the state, however, Drazan has a few advantages this cycle.

Oregon’s current leader is the least popular governor in the country, complicating Kotek’s job of selling a similar platform to voters. Democratic Gov. Kate Brown’s approval ratings have plummeted due to her perceived leniency on crime and the aggression of her pandemic-era mandates.

An independent candidate, Betsy Johnson, has also chipped away at some of Kotek’s support among Democrats.

While Johnson has pulled voters from both parties, she’s taken more Democrats than Republicans, according to the Emerson poll.

Nine percent of Oregon Republicans said they planned to vote for Johnson, but 17% of Oregon Democrats said they would back the independent.

Johnson’s straight-talking style and deep-pocketed campaign donors have given her a significant share of support in recent polls.

Phil Knight, co-founder of Nike, has poured millions of dollars into Johnson’s campaign, helping her to outraise both Drazan and Kotek in a rare feat of fundraising prowess for a third-party candidate.

Crime has put Kotek on defense from both of her opponents.

Johnson has mocked Kotek as “tent city Tina” and complained the streets of Oregon are “a mess.”

A Democrat during her years in the state legislature, Johnson has adopted more centrist positions as an independent candidate this year that have popularized her with Democrats.

“When you have voters that are looking at sort of the status quo and not liking where things are, they’re more likely to blame Democrats or seek a third option, which would be Johnson,” Taylor said.

Drazan has struck a strident tone on crime throughout the race. She’s focused intensely on the violence that Portland city leaders have failed to contain over the past two years, which likely strikes a chord with the 72% of Oregonians who say they have a negative view of Portland.

Business owners have closed up shops and residents have fled since crime and homelessness have mushroomed through the streets. The vacancy rate of office space in downtown Portland has roughly doubled since 2019.

Drazan has suggested she would send state troopers to the city to crack down on crime in the absence of action from Portland Democrats.

“If Portland leaders do not step in, specifically around riots, specifically around unrest that engages in property damage and criminal activity, if Portland leaders don’t step in and resolve that, as governor, I will,” she said in March.

Taylor noted that Republicans are only able to benefit from the combination of dissatisfaction with Oregon Democrats’ handling of crime and the spoiler role of Johnson’s campaign because Drazan is such a strong candidate herself.

Formerly the state legislature’s Republican leader, Drazan made a name for herself in part by orchestrating a walkout of GOP caucus members in 2020 that denied state Democrats the ability to vote on climate change legislation.

Republican state Rep. Daniel Bonham, a former colleague of Drazan’s in the legislature, said Drazan “was like a Michael Jordan in the caucus.”

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“That’s the person who needs the ball at the end of the game,” Bonham told the Willamette Weekly. “She’s just that exceptional.”

Kotek has run on a fairly standard progressive platform that avoids calling for tougher policing or harsher punishments for lawbreakers.

She has continued to advocate community violence prevention programs and racial justice training for police officers rather than an increase in police budgets or the empowerment of prosecutors.