Kamala Harris closes in on Trump after Biden withdrawal: Poll

Vice President Kamala Harris is virtually tied with former President Donald Trump, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released Thursday, just days after President Joe Biden suspended his campaign.

In a hypothetical matchup among likely voters, Trump leads Harris, 48% to 47%, which is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. It is a noticeable improvement from when Biden trailed Trump by 6 percentage points during the July New York Times/Siena College poll when the president had a disastrous debate performance in late June.

Among registered voters, Trump beats Harris by 48% to 46%, which also falls within the poll’s margin of error. Biden trailed Trump by 9 percentage points among registered voters after the debate, which gave credence to Democratic lawmakers who began publicly calling for Biden to end his campaign.

Since Biden announced he was no longer running for president, Harris has quickly galvanized support among Democrats behind her campaign. The vice president has 3,284 delegates who have pledged to support her, far more than the 1,976 delegates needed to secure the nomination, according to an Associated Press survey, and has amassed more than $126 million in fundraising.

Just 14% of those surveyed said they wanted another candidate for the Democratic ticket, and the overwhelming majority, 70%, said they wanted the party to coalesce around Harris. The support is another example of the high-energy momentum she has gained since Biden, 81, dropped out.

The majority of participants, 65%, said they strongly approved of Biden exiting the race and another 22% said they somewhat approved of Biden’s decision. Harris, 59, is a generation younger than Trump, 78, helping her to nullify GOP attacks that Biden was too old to serve another four years in the White House.

Her relative youthfulness and her campaign’s ability to lean into social media memes have given the Democratic Party new hope that they have a fighting chance against Trump in the November election. Harris polls at 60% support among voters under 30 and at 60% with Hispanic voters, a key constituency in battleground states that will determine the election. Before the June debate, only 48% of voters paid much attention to the election. Now that figure has risen to 64%.

The party will meet at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago next month, but before then, it will hold a virtual roll call before Aug. 7 to comply with state ballot certification deadlines. Barring any unforeseen surprises, Harris is likely to have secured the nomination and announced her vice presidential pick.

But the poll did have a few warning signs for Harris. Her favorability has risen from 36% in February to 46% in July, which is higher than Biden at 43% but behind Trump at 48%. Half of voters rated the economic conditions as poor while 25% said it was only fair, a warning sign for the sitting vice president.

The survey was conducted nationwide, making it unclear how much support Harris has compared to Trump in the battleground states. But in the coming weeks, more polling will illuminate where the vice president stands with roughly 103 days left until Election Day.