Poll: Voters divided over efforts to exclude Trump from ballot
Most Voters Believe Trump Should Remain on Primary Ballots Unless Convicted of Insurrection Charges
A recent national poll conducted by The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll in collaboration with Noble Predictive Insights reveals that the majority of likely U.S. voters do not think former President Donald Trump should be removed from primary ballots, unless he is convicted of charges related to the 2021 protests at the U.S. Capitol. This poll comes at a crucial time as the U.S. Supreme Court prepares to hear Trump’s appeal regarding a case in which the Colorado Supreme Court disqualified him from holding office due to his actions on January 6, 2021, which they argue violate the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.
Poll Results
- 41% of likely voters believe Trump should be taken off the 2024 ballot because of his actions on January 6, 2021.
- 40% believe he should not be removed from the ballot and that voters should decide whether he gets another term.
- 15% think Trump should only be removed from the ballot if he is convicted in relation to January 6.
- 5% are unsure.
Since Trump has not been convicted, a majority of 55% now believe he should remain on the ballot.
David Byler, chief of research for Noble Predictive Insights, explains, ”Essentially, 40% of the country wants Trump off the ballot now, and 40% wants him on the ballot no matter how these legal proceedings turn out. If you look at the partisan breakdown, you’ll see that those groups are polarized: Republicans want Trump on the ballot, and many Democrats don’t.”
Byler adds, “Then there’s the swing block – 15% of voters, many of whom are True Independents – who only want Trump to be removed from the ballot if he’s convicted (which hasn’t happened yet).”
According to the poll, 71% of Democrats believe Trump should be taken off the ballot regardless, while 34% of independents agree. On the other hand, 71% of Republicans believe he should not be removed from the ballot, with 27% of independents sharing the same view.
Regarding respondents who believe Trump should only be removed with a conviction, the breakdown is as follows: 13% of Republicans, 15% of Democrats, and 18% of independents.
Trump, who was impeached twice by the U.S. House of Representatives, faces multiple legal challenges from four separate indictments, including charges related to his contestation of the 2020 election results and the subsequent events on January 6.
Byler concludes, “The right reading of this poll, in my view, is that the public is tentatively in favor of putting Trump’s name on the ballot. But if Trump is convicted in court, that 15% of the vote could swing the other way – creating a majority that wants his name off the ballot. It’s a tenuous situation – and public opinion will almost certainly change as these trials unfold.”
Colorado’s Decision and Trump’s Lead in Republican Primary
Following the ruling by the Colorado Supreme Court, Democratic Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows has already removed Trump from the state’s 2024 presidential primary ballot. Trump has faced lawsuits attempting to keep him off the ballot in multiple states, but all have been dismissed thus far.
However, Colorado’s secretary of state included Trump on the certified statewide Republican presidential primary ballot due to a stipulation in the state Supreme Court’s ruling that automatically placed him on the ballot when the case was appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court. Trump will only be removed if the U.S. Supreme Court rules him ineligible.
According to The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll, Trump holds a significant lead among Republican primary candidates.
The poll surveyed an equal number of Republicans and Democrats, as well as 266 “true independents,” who indicated they do not lean toward either party. The poll has a margin of error of approximately 2%.
What percentage of Democrats and independents support Trump’s removal from primary ballots?
Only 4% of Democrats and 23% of independents sharing that sentiment.
The results indicate a clear division among voters along party lines, with Democrats overwhelmingly supporting Trump’s removal from primary ballots and Republicans strongly opposing it. Independents, on the other hand, appear to be split, with a significant portion favoring Trump’s removal if he is convicted of charges related to the Capitol protests.
These findings highlight the contentious nature of Trump’s potential candidacy in future elections. The fact that a significant portion of voters believe he should be removed from primary ballots regardless of his legal status underscores the deep-seated concerns surrounding his actions on January 6, 2021. The events of that day marked a significant breach of the U.S. Capitol and raised questions about the former president’s role in inciting the violence.
However, it is important to note that Trump has not been convicted of any charges related to the insurrection. Therefore, a majority of likely voters believe that he should be allowed to remain on primary ballots until such a conviction occurs. This viewpoint aligns with the principle of innocent until proven guilty, a fundamental tenet of the American legal system.
The upcoming Supreme Court hearing regarding Trump’s appeal adds another layer of complexity to the issue. The Court’s decision will have significant implications for Trump’s future political aspirations and the broader discussion surrounding accountability for public officials. It will be interesting to see how the Court’s ruling influences public opinion on this matter.
Overall, the poll results indicate that most voters believe Trump should remain on primary ballots unless convicted of insurrection charges. The divisions along party lines reflect the deep polarization within American politics and highlight the challenges of addressing controversial figures like Trump in the context of elections. As the legal proceedings continue, the conversation surrounding Trump’s eligibility for future office will undoubtedly remain at the forefront of national discourse.
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