Despite facing numerous indictments, recent polls indicate that Trump is leading Biden in battleground states.

Trump Ahead ​in Electoral Votes⁢ for 2024 Presidential Race

Looking to the 2024 presidential race, Donald Trump is ahead where it counts:‍ in electoral ⁤votes. While national polls show a dead heat,⁢ they do not tell the ‌whole story. If the battleground states break‍ the ‍way current polling shows, Trump has‌ the ⁣chance to break his‍ electoral ‌vote margin of victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016. And all this could occur regardless of how‌ the​ popular vote plays out next November and despite the numerous, well-publicized criminal and​ civil indictments against him.

On Oct. 19, Bloomberg-Morning Consult released a ‌series of​ polls in seven battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennslyvania, and Wisconsin). Although‍ his lead​ is ⁤within the ‌polls’ margins of error, Trump leads in five‌ of ⁣the seven states.⁢ In the other ​two, he is tied in Michigan and trails by just 3 percentage points in Nevada. To put this into ⁤2024 context: Trump lost six of these states in 2020, ​winning only North Carolina.

While Bloomberg-Morning Consult did not ​release a ‌national poll, RealClearPolitics’ ‍ Oct. 19 average of national polling showed Biden​ and ⁢Trump tied at 43.9 percent apiece.

When ⁣is a tie a loss in presidential elections?‌ When it occurs ‌in the popular‌ vote —‍ but not in the Electoral College vote. That is because​ the electoral vote determines the‌ winner; the‍ popular‍ vote is just for show.

Think it cannot happen? It already did in 2016.⁢ Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton‌ by 2.1 percentage ‍points (45.9 percent to 48 percent), but he beat her 306 to 232 where it counted.

Think‍ it ⁣cannot happen ​again? If Bloomberg-Morning⁣ Consult’s ‍numbers⁢ are accurate, it‌ is well on its way. Of the seven​ battleground states they just polled, Trump won all ‍but Nevada in 2016.

Starting from the 2020 electoral⁤ vote⁢ outcome that Trump‍ lost to‌ Biden 232-306, here is a ⁣breakdown of⁢ the 2024 electoral college math and what the seven battleground ‍state polls tell us.

Trump automatically⁢ picks⁤ up⁤ three electoral votes from⁤ his ‍2020 total due to reapportionment ⁤from the⁢ last census. So, just holding his 2020 states, Trump now trails 235-306.

Next ⁢add in the states he lost in 2020 (Arizona, ⁤Georgia, Pennslyvania, and⁤ Wisconsin) where Bloomberg-Morning ⁢Consult’s‌ polls show ⁤him​ currently leading. Together, they account for 56 electoral votes. Add those 56 electoral votes to the Trump column and subtract them from the Biden‌ column, and⁣ you get Trump‌ winning 291-247 — even if⁢ he wound up losing‌ Michigan ‍(where he is tied) and Nevada (where ⁣he‍ trails ‌by 3 percentage‍ points).

Because the magic ⁤number ​of electoral votes needed to win the White‍ House ​is just 270, Trump would ​not need to win all four of the‍ battleground states⁣ where he now leads. Trump could get to 270 by just winning Pennsylvania and Georgia. Under any scenario, he could break 270 by winning just three of the⁣ four — again⁢ assuming he still loses Michigan and Nevada.

What do 2016 and 2020 tell us? Democrats need to win by more than 2.1 ​percent (with which Clinton lost) and up to 4.4 percent ‍(with which Biden won). Take the midpoint, and ⁣you get 3.25 as⁢ a rough minimum of popular vote cushion that a Democrat ⁢running against Trump needs to⁣ win the electoral vote.

Of⁤ course, this is just a rough assumption. Remember ⁤that Biden’s 4 percentage point margin still only ‌amounted to squeaker 2020 wins in six of those seven battleground‌ states ⁣which proved ‍pivotal in his victory.

The bottom line is that ‌Biden needs‍ a big ⁣popular vote cushion to be ​competitive with Trump in the electoral ⁢vote. Effectively, despite being tied with Trump in the popular vote now, Biden is​ well below the ‌cushion he needs to win the White House.

So where does Biden’s needed boost in the polls come from?

Foreign policy? It is⁢ hard to see his record⁤ improving so dramatically that it helps ⁢him ‌in his domestic poll numbers.

The economy? The economy has had only mediocre real growth for⁣ most of ​his presidency, while ‍inflation has raged.

The​ border crisis? This is ⁢a crisis⁢ of his own making, so fixing the mess — which his recently announced 20 miles of new wall ‍will hardly do — he made hardly equates to a victory.

America’s ⁣urban ‌chaos? It is hard to imagine this getting better ⁤without tough policing reforms — reforms that Biden’s⁣ left flank ​opposes.⁣ So, do not expect a change here because Biden desperately⁢ needs his left in⁢ 2024.

Of course, Trump could make his own mistakes that will help Biden. Yet⁣ the converse also holds: Biden is more⁢ than‌ capable of making things worse⁢ for himself​ over the next year.

Biden is now behind where it counts.⁤ He needs to run well ahead in the popular vote to erase his Electoral College ‌vote deficit. Yet none of the major issues ​likely to influence‍ voters‍ look⁣ likely to significantly improve for⁢ him over the next year. If they‍ do not,‌ Biden could find himself losing Michigan and Nevada as well.⁤ If so, Trump would win ⁣21⁣ more⁢ electoral votes and finish with 321: nine​ more than ‍his ⁤victory over Clinton in 2016.

To drive⁢ home the point of⁣ Biden’s uphill ⁢struggle, consider that Trump’s ​leads have come while facing well-publicized ​legal issues. He is facing four ⁤separate indictments ‍ in‍ four states (New‍ York, Florida, ‍D.C., and Georgia) and⁣ 91 felony counts. While most are focusing on when trials will ​begin (the first is currently scheduled to ‍begin March 4, 2024, in Washington, D.C., on election interference⁣ charges), the​ more pertinent dates for current⁢ polling are when the charges ‌were brought.

The ‌first ⁣indictment occurred in New York ⁣on March 30, 2023; the latest ‌occurred in Georgia on Aug. 23,‌ 2023. That means charges have hung ‌over Trump ⁣for seven​ months, and ⁣all four indictments⁤ have for over two months. All have received ‌massive media coverage, yet Trump ⁤is still leading in five of the seven battleground states. Rather than weakening Trump, Democrat ⁣prosecutors and media persecutors may instead have ⁤inoculated him.⁤ If so, Biden’s⁤ climb will be even steeper still.