After the pandemic, the world confronts a bleak mix of debt, trade conflicts, and low productivity.

Record levels ‌of government debt, geopolitical tensions, and weak productivity gains may shape a ‌slow-growth ⁢future​ that hinders ‍development ‌in some countries before it even begins.

The Kansas City Federal Reserve organized a‍ research project that‍ delved⁢ into the post-pandemic global economy during​ a⁣ recent conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The discussions covered topics such as technological innovation, public debt, and international trade. However, the current geopolitical landscape, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the U.S.-China conflict, has eroded the once-broad global agreement to promote the free flow of goods and services.

According to International Monetary Fund chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, countries are now operating in a more fragile environment due ‍to the depletion of fiscal resources during the pandemic ​and the growing trade tensions ​between the West and China.​ Gourinchas warned that if certain parts of the world⁣ remain stagnant and fail to catch up in terms of development, ​it could lead to significant demographic and migration pressures.

Experts at the conference ‌expressed concerns that global growth may settle at around 3% annually, a figure significantly lower than the ‌rates seen​ during China’s rapid economic expansion. The emerging pandemic economy has created a challenging global growth environment, with China facing ⁣chronic economic problems and industrial‌ policies reshaping global production chains.

The ⁣symposium aimed to assess the long-term economic⁤ implications of the pandemic and recent geopolitical tensions. Economists‍ and policymakers agreed‌ that two⁣ pre-pandemic trends have been ⁢intensified by recent events. The ratio of public debt to world economic output has risen to‌ 60%, making significant debt reduction politically unfeasible. ‍This could lead ‌to future debt crises and fiscal constraints‍ for⁤ smaller nations. Additionally, the rising protectionist ⁤policies, from tariffs to reshoring efforts, have fractured the once-promising partnerships created by globalization.

While the pandemic has raised⁢ valid concerns about global supply resilience, World ⁣Trade ‍Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala ⁤argued that reordering​ global production patterns may ⁢hinder growth opportunities. She emphasized the importance ‌of ⁣diversifying trade and including marginalized countries in the global⁤ system.

Despite these challenges, there is hope that ⁢advances in artificial intelligence⁤ could drive higher productivity. However, the potential benefits may be slow to ⁣materialize, ⁣as ⁣innovation becomes increasingly difficult.

Overall, the post-pandemic ‌world is facing a gloomy outlook, with governments grappling with‍ high levels of debt, geopolitical tensions reshaping global trade, and the uncertain⁤ impact of technological advancements.

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