Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told an Institute of International Finance Treasury event on Wednesday that “an incredible opportunity” was at hand for a “beautiful rebalancing” between the U.S. and China.

The Trump administration has said it is conducting trade negotiations with upwards of 75 countries during the 90-day pause of most of the non-China tariffs imposed on what the White House billed as “Liberation Day.”

Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, seems to be jetting off to a new round of talks every week, including such tough customers as the Iranians, Hamas, and Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

At the same time, officials ranging from Vice President JD Vance to Secretary of State Marco Rubio have signaled Trump’s patience for jaw-jawing is limited.

If Trump achieves a breakthrough on any one of these fronts, much less several of them, it could change the course of his presidency and legacy in history.

Failure could mean economic ruin, long electoral odds for Republicans seeking to maintain control of Congress next year, a trade war, and perhaps even a hot war.

Trump’s job approval ratings have been cooling amid the uncertainty and stock market volatility that followed his tariffs announcement. The fact that the markets bounce back every time Trump seems willing to modify his tariffs policy, then dip again when he vows to stay the course, highlights the risk.

The president has acknowledged himself that his initial tariffs rollout made the markets and public “yippy,” which is one of the reasons he instituted the 90-day pause. 

Republicans on Capitol Hill have said they will be happier if the Trump tariffs are a means to lowering trade barriers to U.S. goods rather than a permanent feature of trade policy.

Trump has simultaneously shown himself to be flexible and resolute about the tariffs, with critics expressing concern about mixed messaging. He has also hinted that deals with Moscow and Beijing could be coming soon.

The country has a lot riding on them, as does Trump himself. The Art of the Deal author has made his negotiating prowess central to his entertainment and political careers. 

“I don’t know how you do it. I really don’t,” Trump told Grimace in a 2002 McDonald’s commercial for $1 hamburgers. “I’ve put together some really impressive deals, but this thing you’ve pulled off, it’s amazing.”

After the inflation of the last three years, voters would be amazed by $1 hamburgers. In this climate, it is questionable how long they will be patient in the face of rising tariffs before tangible economic benefits are felt.

Trump was elected to restore something like the pre-pandemic economy, when low unemployment was accompanied by low inflation. The jobs and inflation numbers early in his second term have been better than anticipated.

But Trump decided to roll the dice first on the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency and second on tariffs. In the latter case especially, he was counting on his ability to deliver something more ambitious than economic normalcy. He is rapidly spending the political capital he accumulated during the 2024 campaign.

Soon voters will expect to see Trump get some wins from all the negotiating and deal-making. By Labor Day, even many Republicans could start to get nervous if such successes aren’t apparent. 

After that, the midterm elections will be fast approaching. The 2028 presidential campaign will kick into gear shortly after that. Trump is constitutionally term-limited.

Not even sealing some deals will necessarily solve all of Trump’s political dilemmas. Any trade pact he consummates will attract major scrutiny. Agreements with Russia, Iran, or to end the war in Gaza would likely divide his own party, much like the North Korea talks in his first term. Not everyone inside his own administration is sold on diplomatic solutions to some of these intractable problems.

THE LEFT IS BACK IN RESISTANCE MODE 

But this is how Trump presented himself to the electorate. It is central to his self-image. And characteristic hyperbole and braggadocio aside, it is what Trump has been promising ever since he entered national politics nearly a decade ago.

It’s his time to show he’s the real deal.