Republicans began to sound the alarm last week after early voting totals and polls showed a closer-than-expected contest. An internal poll from Republican firm Fabrizio Ward showed Weil with a 3-point lead over Fine. Another poll showed the race within the poll’s margin of error.

The race poses the first major test for Republicans and could threaten the GOP majority in the House, which is 218-213. This leaves House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) with little flexibility to pass Trump’s agenda. 

In an interview with the Washington Examiner, the state senator from Brevard County said it’s all part of the political strategy to drive Republican turnout.

“I told Washington months ago — what we’re seeing really is the Democrats were mad. This election isn’t about me. It’s not about a change in the perspective of Donald Trump. Democrats are angry, and Republicans are happy,” Fine said, speaking to the Washington Examiner following a visit with Volusia County GOP volunteers. 

“Mad is a greater incentive to vote than happy. And I think it wasn’t until this week … that folks outside of Florida took it seriously,” he said. “Anger is a strong motivator, so what we have tried to do is to give them concern, fear. [Democrats] are mad. You need to think about what will happen if I lose.” 

After federal campaign finance filings revealed Weil had outfundraised Fine 10-to-1, national Republicans began sending in reinforcements in the final days of the campaign. 

Trump, who had endorsed Fine before he entered the GOP primary, called into two tele-town halls for Fine. Elon Musk’s America PAC spent over $75,000 in the race last week. Fine poured at least $600,000 into his campaign, according to other FEC filings. Outside groups are shelling out cash for TV ad time, spending more than $2 million to help Fine, according to data from AdImpact.

A review of FEC data shows most donations to the Weil campaign are coming from outside Florida, a point Fine reiterates.

“Ten million is impressive, but then you have to say, ‘Well, where did it come from?’ None of it came from here,” he said. “Just angry liberals. It’s not an outswelling of support from this area. It’s people from Seattle and San Francisco.”  

A second congressional special election is set for Tuesday in Pensacola, where Republican state CFO Jimmy Patronis faces Democrat Gay Valimont in the race to fill the seat held by former Rep. Matt Gaetz. 

Due to the nature of a special election, Fine argues Weil is also benefiting from the fact the race is the first major federal election just two months after Trump took office.

“The only reason this guy has 10 million is because there was no one else to give money to — he wasn’t just one of 435 elections. He and the lady in Pensacola are the only game in town,” Fine said.

Fine ramps up attacks on Weil in final days of campaign

Fine has accelerated his attacks on Weil over the past few weeks. On his X account, he has repeatedly brought up Weil’s endorsement from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), claiming his opponent aligns with socialists.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Randy Fine Statement on @BernieSanders’ Endorsement of Socialist Josh Weil

“Like the anti-Trump Democrats who have poured millions of dollars into this race, Bernie Sanders doesn’t care what violent and disturbing things Weil has done — they only care…

— Senator Randy Fine (@VoteRandyFine) March 29, 2025

“While I will fight tirelessly in Congress for President Trump and his America First agenda, my opponent will lock arms with socialists Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders to recklessly open our borders, cripple Florida families with trillions of dollars in new spending and tax increases, and put our families in the crosshairs of dangerous criminals and deadly drugs,” Fine said in a statement.

The Republican Florida senator has also criticized his opponent on a variety of fronts, including calling for Weil’s arrest after a campaign staffer was arrested handing out flyers on a stolen bicycle. Weil’s campaign fired the person. Fine also raises an incident in which his Democratic opponent allegedly improperly restrained a student who accused him of choking him a decade ago. In 2016, the Florida Department of Education reviewed the case and determined “no probable cause to pursue disciplinary charges against [his] Florida Educator’s Certificate.” 

Weil, for his part, has slammed Fine for focusing on serving Trump rather than the people of District 6, contrasting the approach with a more people-focused campaign.

“This is a people-powered campaign. The other guy is still, still hasn’t figured it out. He’s on TV. They ask him, ‘What are you doing for the people?’ And his response is, ‘I’m here to serve Donald Trump,’” Weil said to a group of canvassers at a coffee shop in Daytona Beach on Saturday.

Fine wants to be ‘Hebrew Hammer’ in Congress

As the only Jewish Republican in the 160-member Florida legislature, Fine has welcomed the moniker “Hebrew Hammer,” which was given to him by a Republican colleague. He has emerged as a key advocate of pro-Israel policies and efforts to fight antisemitism.

“I think what I’m most known for is fighting for Jews in Israel because I was really the only one who could do it when I ran for the legislature. That wasn’t part of my agenda,” Fine said. 

Fine recalls being asked to secure funding to protect Jewish day schools after a series of bomb threats. Initially questioning why he was chosen, Fine was told it was because he was the only one who could make it happen. 

“I got $640,000 that first year. Last year, it was $20 million,” he explained. “Everybody knows I’m Jewish. I don’t hide it. I’m not a Republican who is Jewish. I’m a Jewish Republican.”

Fine’s legislative initiatives in the Florida state House include mandating that schools and universities address antisemitism as they do racism, strengthening the state’s anti-boycott, divestment, and sanctions law to prohibit municipalities and agencies from buying from companies that boycott Israel, and adopting the contested International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance definition of antisemitism.

The 50-year-old said he has embraced the nickname, explaining he “hits hard” and “doesn’t believe in backing down.” If Fine is elected, he would become the fourth Jewish Republican in the House of Representatives, joining Reps. David Kustoff (R-TN), Max Miller (R-OH), and Craig Goldman (R-TX).

Weil converted to Islam and is now affiliated with the Islamic Center of Orlando. Fine has repeatedly referred to his opponent as “Jihad Josh Weil” and suggested Weil “supported Muslim terror.” Fine has highlighted Weil’s previous stances on Israel, though his opponent has not been outspoken about the war in Gaza. During Weil’s short stint running for Senate in 2021, he advocated ending U.S. military aid and called for the secretary of state to intervene and stop the expulsion of Palestinians from an East Jerusalem neighborhood. 

Concerns over a lack of enthusiasm from GOP

Fine is well known for his combative nature, and some Republican operatives are concerned there’s a lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy, which can be particularly problematic during a special election when participation rates are lower.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) issued a warning about the Tuesday election regarding “underperformance.”

“Regardless of the outcome in that, it’s going to be a way underperformance from what I won that district by in 2022 and what the president won it by in November,” DeSantis told reporters. 

“It’s a reflection of the candidate that’s running in that race,” he added of Fine.

DeSantis and Fine have had a fraught relationship since Fine switched his endorsement from DeSantis to Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. 

In interviews outside early in-person polling locations this weekend, many Republican voters said they knew very little about Fine or had a negative opinion of him but decided to vote for him anyway, opting to send a message that they have been satisfied with Trump’s actions since he entered office. 

“I’m voting for the Republican, but I don’t even know his name,” said John Hasar, 74, a history teacher in Ormond Beach. “This election came up so fast, but I’ll vote for any candidate that’s going to protect Trump — he’s being obstructed from every corner.”

Jeremiah Cronin, 66, a registered Republican who works in real estate, said he voted for Fine but was not particularly happy about it. Part of the reason has to do with the fact that the Republican nominee is from Melbourne, about 75 miles away from the district. Weil also does not reside in District 6.

“Unfortunately, there was some external pressure, and he’s emerged as the candidate,” Cronin said. “I know some of the people here in the district who’ve worked very, very hard to make this a beautiful community, who are just kind of pushed to the side. I am not happy.”

Cronin mentioned that the district, which includes the stretch of coast between St. Augustine and Daytona Beach, has had a long legacy of strong leaders. In addition to Waltz, DeSantis also served in this district when he was in Congress.

“We had DeSantis and then Waltz, so, I mean, we’re really lowering the bar here, to be honest with you, with this game, you know, it’s a real drop-off to what we’ve been used to here,” Cronin said.

Laurie McIntosh-Kerans, 68, a registered Republican, also said she voted for Fine simply because “he supports Trump.”

“I think it’s a slight downgrade from Waltz. I think he needs to step up to the plate, and I think he can do it. I think with leadership and guidance, if they unite the party, it’ll happen,” she said after casting her ballot on Saturday.

Fine admitted that if he is elected to represent the district, he has some work to do to get to know this constituency, given the extremely short timeline of the special election.

“I haven’t represented this area before, and a decision was made that the best way to market me was through President Trump’s endorsement, and he really wanted me, so once I win — I do have a lot of work to do to truly introduce who I am to the voters,” Fine said.

Fine expressed confidence in his ability to connect with people over time. He acknowledged that during a short campaign, there’s only so much he can do to introduce himself, especially since he’s not well known in the area.

“The more people, the more time people spend with me, the more they like me. And so I’m not worried about that,” he said.

Waltz won the district by more than 30 points in November 2024, and Trump beat then-Vice President Kamala Harris by 30 points in the same district. Former Sen. Bill Nelson is the only Democrat who has won the district in a federal race since 1989.

JOSH WEIL EYES UPSET IN FLORIDA, APPEALING TO SENIORS AND VETERANS ANGRY WITH DOGE CUTS

There are nearly twice as many registered Republicans as Democrats in the region, which gives Fine confidence about his prospects heading into the election. He is uncertain about what the margin of victory will be.

“We’re in great shape heading into the election. I’m confident that I will win. I don’t know by what margin — it could be small, or it could be 20 points on Tuesday,” Fine said. “If it is big, a lot of folks who have been ripping their hair out will have to take a look at that.”