Report: Inflation Worries Depressing US Consumer Confidence

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters)—U.S. consumer confidence ebbed in October after two straight monthly increases amid rising concerns about inflation and a possible recession next year, but households remained keen to purchase big-ticket items like motor vehicles and appliances.

The Conference Board survey on Tuesday also showed more consumers planned to buy a home over the next six months, despite soaring borrowing costs. The steady rise in consumers’ buying intentions could provide some stability for the economy in the near-term.

But there are signs that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes are starting to cool the labor market, with a decline in the share of consumers viewing jobs as “plentiful” and a rise in those saying employment was “hard to get.”

“The biggest risk is the unknown lagged effects from the Fed’s cumulative tightening and the economy may not feel the full effects until next year when recession risks are high,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 102.5 this month from 107.8 in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index at 106.5. The decline in confidence was across all age groups, but more pronounced in the 35-54 and well as the 55 and over cohorts.

Regionally, there were marked decreases in Florida, probably because of Hurricane Ian, and Ohio. Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations rose to 7.0%, likely reflecting a recent reversal in gasoline prices after falling over the summer, from 6.8% last month. Food also remains very expensive.

Stubbornly high inflation and fading confidence are a blow to President Joe Biden and Democrats’ hopes of retaining control of Congress in Nov. 8 mid-term elections.

The Fed, fighting the fastest-rising inflation in 40 years, has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate from near zero in March to the current range of 3.00% to 3.25%, the swiftest pace of policy tightening in a generation or more. That rate is likely to end the year in the mid-4% range, based on the U.S. central bank officials’ own projections and recent comments.

The survey’s present situation index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, tumbled to 138.9, the lowest level since April 2021, from 150.2 in September.

Its expectations index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, fell to 78.1 from 79.5 last month. The expectations index remains

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