GOP 2024 contenders urge donors to value patience, not polls.
Republican Candidates Urge Donors and Voters to Look Beyond the Polls
Republican presidential candidates are making a passionate plea to their supporters, urging them not to be swayed by the polls. They believe they possess hidden advantages in crucial early primary states that could turn the tide in the 2024 primary battle.
Former President Donald Trump currently enjoys a substantial lead over his Republican competitors in the polls. His lead has only grown stronger in recent weeks as other candidates sparred at the Republican primary debates, which Trump chose to skip. In the latest Morning Consult poll, Trump secured a staggering 61% of potential Republican primary voters, while his closest rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), received a mere 13%.
DeSantis Fights Back Against Trump
Before entering the 2024 race earlier this year, Governor DeSantis of Florida was steadily closing the gap with Trump in hypothetical primary polls, coming within 14 percentage points of the former president. However, since launching his campaign and amidst Trump’s surge, DeSantis has lost ground.
During the second Republican debate, Fox News host Dana Perino raised this issue, asking DeSantis about his chances of defeating Trump. In response, DeSantis confidently stated, “Polls don’t elect presidents. Voters elect presidents. And we’re going to take our case directly to the people in these early states. We’ll do it state by state. As Reagan said, this is our time for choosing.”
DeSantis’s campaign is pinning its hopes on Iowa, the state that hosts the first Republican presidential caucuses. They believe a strong showing in Iowa will propel the Florida governor forward. Interestingly, Trump has spent relatively little time campaigning in Iowa, a state he lost in the 2016 primary. On the other hand, DeSantis has dedicated a significant portion of his campaign to the Hawkeye State, vowing to visit every county. Current polling in Iowa shows DeSantis with higher support than his national average, while Trump’s support has dipped below 50%. Additionally, a metric developed by an influential Iowa pollster indicates that interest in DeSantis is nearly equal to that in Trump.
With Iowa’s caucuses just over three months away, DeSantis emphasized the importance of making the right choice during the debate. “We can’t afford to make mistakes in the 2024 election,” he told Perino. “Republicans have lost three consecutive elections. We were supposed to have a red wave, but it crashed and burned. Not in Florida, though. We delivered. We need to choose wisely, win decisively, and have a president who can serve two terms and lead us to economic recovery, secure our borders, and counter the threat from Communist China. I will get that job done as your president.”
Former Vice President Mike Pence seemed to echo DeSantis’s sentiments, affirming, “That’s right.”
According to Andrew Smith, the director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, there is some validity to the candidates’ request for donors to hold on a little longer. However, he cautioned that time is running out. “Early primary states, especially New Hampshire, have a significant impact on the nominee,” Smith explained. “But with too many Republicans dividing the GOP electorate, it’s challenging for either Scott or DeSantis to emerge as the frontrunner.”
This plea to rely less on current polling is not limited to DeSantis and Pence. Senator Tim Scott’s campaign is also urging donors to remain committed until South Carolina’s primary, where they anticipate Scott’s victory. By asking donors to have faith in Scott until South Carolina, they are essentially asking them to stay engaged until February, just before Super Tuesday.
In a recent call with donors, Scott’s campaign expressed confidence in their performance across the board. ”We’re going to win Iowa, do well in New Hampshire, and South Carolina is going to change the world,” declared national finance co-chair Mikee Johnson. “We can feel the momentum building.”
Johnson added, “Let’s not forget that we will win the votes in South Carolina. This is where we make a difference. We make a difference when we win South Carolina.”
South Carolina’s primaries have a track record of accurately selecting their party’s nominees and eventual presidents. Since 1980, the state has successfully chosen the eventual GOP nominee in every primary, with the exception of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in 2012.
While Scott performs better in his home state of South Carolina than he does nationally, as does former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, Trump still maintains a significant lead in the state. However, Scott has more time to build his support in the Palmetto State than DeSantis has in Iowa, as South Carolina’s primary is scheduled for February 24, 2024.
Pollster Ann Selzer emphasized the influence of early primary states, stating, “They are designed to be turning points because they are the first states where candidates can secure victories. Iowa and New Hampshire are small enough that candidates don’t need to exhaust their resources to compete. So, yes, they hold immense significance.”
It is not surprising that candidates are cautioning their supporters against placing too much trust in the polls. Trump himself adopted this strategy in 2016, and history proved him right, as the polls consistently underestimated his chances against Hillary Clinton. However, Trump’s campaign appears to have more faith in the polls for the 2024 primary race.
Responding to the candidates’ call to disregard the polls, Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung dismissed it as a “pathetic strategy” from candidates who are out of touch with reality and being drained of their funds by consultants.
Several donors seem to agree with Smith’s assessment that too many candidates are dividing the non-Trump supporting electorate.
To address this issue and consolidate support behind a single candidate sooner rather than later, a group of billionaire Republican donors is hosting the presidential campaigns of DeSantis and Haley in October. They aim to present their chosen candidate as the one who can defeat Trump. While DeSantis remains the second-place candidate to Trump in most surveys, Haley has experienced a notable upward trend in key measures, particularly in New Hampshire. Her debate performances have significantly boosted her campaign, making her one of the few candidates to see an increase in polling while DeSantis struggles to maintain momentum.
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What political party represented the conservative values?
Social issues. The Republican Party has generally associated with socially conservative policies, although it does have dissenting centrist and libertarian factions. Metto State, and his campaign believes that his record of accomplishments and his strong conservative values will resonate with voters.
In conclusion, Republican candidates are urging donors and voters to look beyond the polls and consider the advantages they possess in crucial early primary states. While Trump currently leads in the national polls, candidates like DeSantis and Scott believe that their performance in states like Iowa and South Carolina will be instrumental in shaping the primary battle. They emphasize the need to choose wisely and win decisively in order to secure a Republican victory in the 2024 election. With time running out, these candidates are rallying their supporters to remain committed and have faith in their campaigns. Although the polls may show a certain frontrunner, the early primary states have a history of surprising outcomes. Ultimately, it will be the voters who elect the next Republican president, and the candidates are determined to make their case directly to the people.
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