Can GOP debates narrow down the Republican field?
2024 Republican Primary Candidates Hopeful Despite Trump’s Dominance
The upcoming opening debate of the 2024 Republican primary has candidates not named Donald Trump eager to make their mark in the race. While Trump continues to hold a strong lead, the debates also bring pressure on these candidates to drop out and allow a non-Trump contender to emerge.
All Eyes on Ron: Pressure Mounts on DeSantis
The spotlight is on Governor Ron DeSantis as pressure builds ahead of the first GOP debate. Party strategist Evan Siegfried and other members of the GOP are urging candidates who don’t qualify for the Republican National Committee-sanctioned debates to suspend their campaigns. Siegfried emphasizes that candidates like Francis Suarez should have garnered enough support by now to qualify for the debates, and if they can’t, they have no business running for president.
Siegfried also points out that some candidates may be running for ulterior motives, such as a Cabinet position, a book deal, increased speaking fees, or even the vice presidency.
Similar sentiments are echoed by Governor Chris Sununu, who argues that candidates should consider dropping out before the second debate. Sununu believes that those polling in the low single digits by Christmas should acknowledge their shortcomings and make way for the top three or four candidates.
However, even if candidates were to suspend their campaigns, it doesn’t guarantee a strong opponent who can challenge Trump. Recent polls show Trump with a significant lead, making it difficult for any alternative candidate to gain traction.
According to strategist Siegfried, “Even if there were a viable alternative, the highest ceiling for them is 38% in that poll, so that’s a huge lead, even if there were just one other candidate every Republican was supporting.”
Despite the challenges, many candidates continue their campaigns, knowing that the nomination has always been Donald Trump’s to lose.
Qualified Candidates Face Tough Competition
Currently, Trump holds an average of 56% support nationally, followed by Ron DeSantis at 15%, Vivek Ramaswamy at 7%, Mike Pence at 4%, and Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, and Tim Scott at 3%. However, Trump’s support is lower in Iowa and New Hampshire, with averages of 43% and 44%, respectively.
Initially, many candidates hoped to appeal to Republicans through the debates, banking on the idea that Trump’s legal problems would lead to his downfall. Now, their strategies rely on the response of the GOP and general election electorate to Trump’s court appearances.
Presidential historian David Pietrusza emphasizes that debates rarely result in an immediate end to campaigns but can set them on a path to eventual extinction based on performance. He cites past examples such as Chris Christie’s impact on Marco Rubio in 2016 and Donald Trump’s “Low Energy Jeb” comment that sank Jeb Bush.
As the first debate approaches, candidates like Ron DeSantis and Tim Scott are aware of the high expectations placed upon them. They aim to deliver their positive, conservative messages and connect with millions of voters across the country.
Ten candidates have qualified for the first debate, including Trump, DeSantis, Pence, Haley, Scott, Burgum, Hutchinson, Christie, Ramaswamy, and Johnson. However, former Texas Rep. Will Hurd, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, and conservative radio host Larry Elder have not met the qualifications.
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