Republican-only 2024 caucuses in Iowa reflect its deepening red hue

On cold nights leading up to Iowa’s first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses, the Des Moines Marriott Downtown’s bar typically fills with journalists, campaign staff, political tourists, and others associated with the event. However, in 2024, the crowd may be sparser.

After fifty years of dominance, Democrats have removed Iowa from its position in the premier spot on the party’s nominating calendar. In its place, South Carolina will be the first state to host the 2024 Democratic presidential primaries, with New Hampshire and Nevada sharing the No. 2 spot, followed by Georgia and Michigan later in February.

President Joe Biden’s political operations urged the Democratic National Committee to adopt this new calendar, with the President expected to seek re-election and unlikely to face any significant primary opposition. As for Republicans, however, Iowa remains the first state in the national selection process. The Republican caucuses are scheduled for February 5th.

In an attempt to become the first former Chief Executive to return to the White House since Democrat Grover Cleveland did so after a four-year hiatus in 1893, former President Donald Trump is expected to visit Iowa regularly, just like Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), Trump’s fiercest rival for the 2024 Presidential nomination, if he decides to run.

Nonetheless, there are already two additional GOP candidates in the Hawkeye State: former South Carolina Gov. and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and “anti-woke” biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. Furthermore, other potential Republican Presidential candidates may emerge, including former Vice President Mike Pence, ex-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC).

That Republicans will have Iowa all to themselves in early Presidential action reflects the state’s stark rightward shift throughout the last decade. Iowa, along with the currently Republican states of Florida and Ohio, is effectively eliminated from Democratic Presidential politics.

Former President Barack Obama won all three states twice, and even 1988 Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis won Iowa amid an otherwise crushing loss to GOP President George H.W. Bush.

However, Iowa has become solidly Republican since 2016. Trump won Iowa by roughly 8 points against 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and against President Biden in 2020. Additionally, all of Iowa’s congressional delegation comprising two senators and four House members belong to the Republican Party, as do the governorship and majorities in both state legislative chambers.

The reasons for Iowa’s transformation into a Republican stronghold remain debatable. Some compare the strain on Iowa’s farmers to the loss of manufacturing jobs in Ohio, making residents more receptive to Trump’s protectionist message on trade policy. Others point out that Iowa lacks a deep-blue area overflowing with Democratic voters. Unlike Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Illinois, it isn’t run by a solitary large metropolitan area. Des Moines doesn’t compare in significance with the Twin Cities, Milwaukee, or Chicago.

This implies that whereas the Democrats have abandoned Iowa as their first-voting state, the Republicans are unlikely to do so. Only one party’s candidates, those on the GOP side, will probably make an appearance in Iowa in the run-up to the February 2024 event. However, with a field based on Trump, which may include additional aspirants, Iowa will still see plenty of political activity, enough to fill a chilly Des Moines hotel bar, even if the Democrats are absent.