Republicans should not base their entire campaigns solely on opposing the Biden economy
The text discusses the current economic situation in the U…
The article discusses the Republican Party’s approach to the upcoming elections, emphasizing economic issues harking back to James Carville’s strategy during Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign. This strategy centers on targeting the incumbent’s failures when the economy is performing poorly. Currently, however, the American economy shows positive indications with a low unemployment rate of 4%, a decreasing inflation rate of 3.3%, and a robust GDP growth of 6.3% in 2023. Despite these figures, public perception remains skeptical, influenced by previous inflation spikes under Biden’s administration, now referred to as “Bidenflation.”
Republicans are focusing on these economic factors, reflecting public discontent. However, the article suggests that while Republicans are justified in critiquating Bidenomics, they should broaden their campaign strategy beyond just economic issues. This is premised on the idea that if public perceptions align with the positive economic realities before the elections, and if the media continues to highlight these improvements, the Republican focus on the economy alone might not be as effective in swaying swing voters.
In essence, while the Republicans are leveraging current economic displeasure, they may need to diversify their electoral strategies and address other significant issues to capture a broader electorate, particularly if the economic landscape continues to improve. The narrative implies the strategic need for balance, suggesting that focusing solely on the economy might not suffice for a decisive victory in the upcoming elections.
It’s not only the economy, stupid. Especially when the economy may already be improving.
Republicans this year seem to be over-enamored of Democratic strategist James Carville’s wisdom from the 1992 presidential race, when he famously insisted that then-candidate Bill Clinton’s campaign forget left-wing wish lists and instead focus on the relatively weak economy under then-President George H.W. Bush.
Yes, when the economy under your incumbent opponent is bad, it’s usually true that you can defeat that incumbent by blaming him for economic woes. The reality, though, is that by historical standards, today’s economy is pretty good. If perception catches up to that reality before Election Day in November, and if Republicans haven’t teed up noneconomic topics as well, then the bulk of the “swing voters” who are sick of Republican former President Donald Trump’s drama might just decide to embrace Democrats up and down the ballot.
The unemployment rate right now is just 4%. Prices in the past 12 months rose just 3.3%, and that number is trending downward. Last month’s prices didn’t rise at all. For historical comparison, from 1970 to 2018, there was only one year (1999) when unemployment was at 4% or less while inflation was under 3.5% at the same time. And for the first 30 of those years, the federal funds interest rate was above (worse than) today’s 5.33% all but eight times.
Meanwhile, the overall economy grew at a robust 6.3% in 2023.
Except for the interest rates, which aren’t terrible but aren’t ideal either, those numbers all show a healthy economy.
Of course, right now, the public perception is different. The public continues to reel from the Bidenomics-induced inflation of 2021 through early 2023. The dramatic two-year hike in prices for food and housing seems shocking. That’s why Republicans are stressing the economy now: Quite justifiably, people remain angry at Bidenflation.
But shock doesn’t last. It fades. Unlike in 1992, when the liberal media pounded home Carville’s message that the economy (unemployment rate: 7.4%) was awful, the same media this year will spend the next 20 weeks highlighting low unemployment and falling inflation. If inflation remains under control as it has been for the past two months, the media’s pro-Biden blitz might largely neutralize the Republican anti-Bidenomics message, even though it’s too late to make the economy an outright winning issue for Biden himself.
This isn’t to say that Republicans shouldn’t capitalize on the Democrats’ current polling weaknesses regarding the economy. It is instead to adopt the old wisdom about having eggs in more than one basket. Rather than adopting a mono-focus on the economy, Republicans should be pushing other issues just as hard. Moreover, they need to better calibrate their message on those other issues. Too many Republicans, especially in the House, have lost touch with how to communicate with voters not already in their MAGA-besotted choir.
Suburban voters, including but far from entirely consisting of proverbial “soccer moms,” remain the demographic that is most up for grabs. Disgusted by Trump, socially centrist, and turned off by right-wing sloganeering, they aren’t going to be attracted by grievance-based politics or slogans against immigrants and gender transitioners. Suburbanites are, however, worried about Biden’s weak leadership and mental decline, and they are disdainful of Vice President Kamala Harris and of left-wing, social-issue crusading.
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Moreover, if they don’t hate illegal immigrants, they do hate cross-border fentanyl smugglers. If they don’t hate transgender people, they do hate schools keeping secrets about their own children. If Republicans run with the right issues, rightly expressed, suburbanites will move their way.
Conservative Republican Glenn Youngkin won the governorship of Democratic-leaning Virginia by running on subjects suburbanites cared about, expressed in terms soccer moms appreciated. If the economy is neutralized as a campaign issue by November, as may be the case, Republicans should be ready with other Youngkin-ish messages. Otherwise, with the unpopular Trump at the top of their ticket, Republicans down the ballot will lose.
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