Results Released for Battleground Poll Conducted Immediately After Debate
A recent snap poll conducted by the Trafalgar Group following a debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump showed minimal movement in candidate support despite the perception that Harris won the debate. In battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, 55.3% of viewers believed Harris performed better than Trump, who received 42.5% support in that regard. However, pre-debate support was nearly tied, with Trump at 47.4% and Harris at 46.8%. Post-debate, Trump’s lead shrank slightly to 48.2% versus Harris’s 47.9%, highlighting that the debate did little to change voters’ preferences.
The debate moderators, particularly from ABC, faced criticism for their perceived bias, as they fact-checked Trump multiple times without addressing Harris’s inaccuracies. This seemingly lopsided moderation, combined with Trump’s lackluster performance during the debate, raised questions about the impact of these factors on voters in the crucial battleground states. Despite the debate dynamics, the Trafalgar poll suggests that Trump maintains an advantage in these areas, leaving uncertainty regarding whether the debate helped Harris’s campaign moving forward.
Vice President Harris got plenty of help from the debate moderators Tuesday night, but a snap poll released in its immediate aftermath raises the question of whether it helped her campaign.
A poll by the Trafalgar Group taken during and immediately after the matchup in Philadelphia showed the contest barely moved the needle when it came to support for the candidates.
And it was taken in the battleground states that will decide the 2024 campaign.
The poll surveyed 2,245 respondents in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
It found that a clear majority of those watching thought Harris had won the debate with former President Donald Trump — 55.3 percent to 42.5 percent.
However, it also showed that on the all-important question of what candidate would get respondents’ votes, the results were statistically unchanged from before the debate began.
RESULTS of our joint @trafalgar_group @InsiderPolling #PresidentialDebate2024 #Battlegroundstate #poll.
1) Supporting for president before the debate.
47% Trump
47% Harris
2% Others
4% Undecided2) Who won the debate?
55% Harris
43% Trump
2% Tie3) Who are you… pic.twitter.com/HT0uKQS4fK
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 11, 2024
Pre-debate, the poll found Trump with a slight edge — 47.4 percent to 46.8 percent, a statistical tie. Post-debate, the poll found Trump still with an edge, just a slightly slighter one — 48.2 percent to 47.9 percent.
In short, it amounts to a wash.
And that’s not for lack of trying by the ABC moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis.
Fox News reported early Wednesday that Muir and Davis inserted themselves into the proceedings, “fact-checking” Trump a total of five times in the debate while not doing it to Harris even once.
Not that there wasn’t room to do so.
As Fox noted in a separate piece, Harris mischaracterized Trump’s comments on the 2017 violence in Charlottesville, Virginia. The moderators let it slide, Trump had to call Harris’ statement out as “debunked.”
She twisted his use of the word “bloodbath” when describing what would happen if he lost the election. (Trump was clearly referring to the prospects for the U.S. auto industry.)
She tried to tie him to “Project 2025,” a book of proposals by the conservative group Heritage Foundation. Trump has publicly distanced himself from the plan.
There were others, too, but the ABC moderators focused solely on “fact-checking” Trump, according to Fox.
Americans watching the debate knew that, just as American voters have known for years about the establishment media’s undeniable bias against Trump.
It was clear that Trump didn’t have his best night on the debate stage — the conservative leaning New York Post used the word “rattled” in a headline on a debate story that also listed the “fact-checking” and other bias on display at the debate.
And that makes the Trafalgar poll big news for the Republican candidate and his supporters.
Critics might point out that Trafalgar Group was founded in 2016 by former Republican political consultant Robert Calahy and claim its findings suspect. But it’s also one of the few polling groups that correctly predicted Trump’s win in the 2016 presidential campaign and predicted a Biden win in 2020, too, according to RealClearPolitics.
“Over the last two presidential cycles, Trafalgar has been the most accurate pollster with an average error margin of 2.45 points, according to a 2023 RealClearPolitics analysis,” the outlet noted in a report published Monday.
So it’s certainly worth paying attention to.
Even with an off-night on national television, confronting the establishment media along with his campaign opponent, Trump retained his edge in the states where the election is going to be won or lost.
It’s clear that Harris had help from the supposedly neutral moderators.
Judging by the results of the Trafalgar poll, in the battleground states at least, what isn’t clear is whether it’s going to help her campaign.
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