RFK Jr. unlikely to make 2024 debate stage as qualifying deadline looms

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is close to reaching the polling threshold for next week’s presidential debate, but the Thursday deadline to qualify, plus his difficulty gaining ballot access, virtually guarantees he will not make the stage.

With days until the June 27 debate, Kennedy has reached the 15% polling threshold in three of four qualifying national surveys, underscoring he could be a spoiler in a presidential rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

Yet Kennedy, an independent who draws support from voters in both parties, lacks a fourth survey as well as ballot access in enough states to reach 270 electoral votes, the magic number for winning the presidency.

Kennedy claims that CNN, which is hosting the debate in Atlanta, is treating him unfairly, but with hours left to meet the network’s rules, he is not expected to appear onstage with the two major party candidates for their first debate of the 2024 cycle.

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While Kennedy’s campaign is attempting to gain access in all 50 states, the process of collecting enough signatures is an enormous undertaking for third-party candidates given the financial disadvantage and groundwork required. Kennedy’s campaign claims it has been approved for ballot access in nine states: California, Delaware, Hawaii, Michigan, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, and Utah.

The campaign also states it has collected enough signatures in 14 others.

In theory, that would give Kennedy access to 310 electoral votes but includes states that have not certified Kennedy and are not expected to do so in time for the debate.

CNN reported on Saturday it is not likely that candidates other than Biden and Trump will qualify. The network says Kennedy is on the ballot in only six states, totaling 89 Electoral College votes.

Last month, Kennedy’s campaign filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission alleging that CNN worked in tandem with the Biden and Trump campaigns to exclude him from the debate.

The debate criteria were “designed to result in the selection of certain pre-chosen participants, namely Biden and Trump, in a clear breach of federal campaign finance law,” the complaint stated.

Kennedy also argued that since Biden and Trump are the presumptive but not official nominees of their respective political parties, they do not have access to 270 electoral votes. In a previous statement to the Washington Examiner, CNN pushed back against the collusion allegations.

“The law in virtually every state provides that the nominee of a state-recognized political party will be allowed ballot access without petitioning,” a CNN spokesperson said. “As the presumptive nominees of their parties both Biden and Trump will satisfy this requirement. As an independent candidate, under applicable laws RFK, Jr. does not. The mere application for ballot access does not guarantee that he will appear on the ballot in any state. In addition, RFK, Jr. does not currently meet our polling criteria, which, like the other objective criteria, were set before issuing invitations to the debate.”

The Kennedy campaign did not respond to multiple requests for comment, but Tony Lyons, the co-chairman of the super PAC supporting him, told the Washington Examiner he still expects the FEC to weigh in on the debate.

“The complaint has been filed with the FEC, and so they have time to actually rule on it and find it to be an illegal campaign contribution,” Lyons, who leads American Values 2024, said. “And if they do that, then I think they would be forced to include Bobby Kennedy in the debate. And even if the FEC doesn’t rule on it, it’s so clearly un-American and anti-democratic for CNN to do this.”

Other political experts were skeptical of the FEC pressuring CNN to allow Kennedy onstage. “This is just American politics — when all else fails, sue,” Bernard Tamas, author of The Demise and Rebirth of American Third Parties, said. “And I can’t imagine the FEC actually forcing CNN to change its rules, partially because it’s dominated by the Democrats and Republicans, so that’s problem No. 1.”

“But problem No. 2 is that the argument is a little bit — I wouldn’t say flimsy but, I mean, very technically, he might have a point — but it doesn’t seem like it’s strong enough for them to force CNN to change what they’re planning,” Tamas, who also is an associate professor of political science at Valdosta State University, said.

The Kennedy campaign pointed to an FEC spokesperson’s comments to Island News that the term presumptive nominee “is not in the FEC’s debate regulation” as proof that CNN is not exempted from “excessive campaign contributions.”

But again political experts expressed reservation. “The Federal Election Commission is not known for taking a vigorous stance on things, and I would expect that there wouldn’t be much help for RFK Jr. from the FEC,” Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington, said.

The Trump campaign maintains the former president would welcome Kennedy on the debate stage. “President Trump said repeatedly he had no problem debating RFK Jr. and he believes any candidate who qualifies for the ballot should be allowed to make their case to America’s voters,” Karoline Leavitt, national press secretary for the campaign, said in a statement.

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“It’s Joe Biden and the Democrats who are using financial and legal resources to prevent RFK’s access to the ballot because they know RFK Jr. is a radical leftist who pulls more votes from Biden than President Trump,” Leavitt continued.

The Democratic National Committee declined a request for comment; the Washington Examiner reached out to the Biden campaign. But the president’s team has previously made the opposite case about Kennedy — that he will pull votes from Trump.