Risk of Deeper Conflict As Turkey Pushes Into Iraq

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SARARO — Looming over the deserted village of Sararo in northern Iraq, three Turkish military outposts break the skyline, part of an incursion that forced the residents to flee last year after days of shelling.

These are just a few examples of the dozens Turkish military bases that have been established on Iraqi soil during the past two decades as Turkey intensifies its long-running offensive against Kurdish militants hiding in remote areas.

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“When Turkey first came to the area, they set up small portable tents, but in the spring, they set up outposts with bricks and cement,” Sararo’s mayor Abdulrahman Hussein Rashid said in December during a visit to the village, where shell casings and shrapnel still litter the ground.

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“They have drones and cameras operating 24/7. They know everything that’s going on,” Reuters heard him tell of the moment drones buzzed over the mountainous terrain, 5km from the frontier.

Turkey’s advances across the increasingly depopulated border of Iraqi Kurdistan attract little global attention compared to its incursions into Syria or the battle against Islamic State, but the escalation risks further destabilizing a region where foreign powers have intervened with impunity, analysts say.

Turkey could find itself further embroiled in the event that its new Iraqi bases are subject to sustained attack. Kurdish officials warn that Iran may be encouraged by Turkey’s increasing presence in Iraq to escalate military action against those it claims are fomenting unrest at its home.

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Former secretary general for Kurdistan’s Peshmerga forces, Jabar Manda, said Turkey had 29 outposts in Iraq until 2019 but the number has mushroomed as Ankara tries to stop the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) launching attacks on its own territory.

“Year after year the outposts have been increasing after the escalation of battles between Turkish forces and the PKK,” He estimated the current number at about 87, mostly in a border area of 150 km (95 miles) and thirty km deep.

“In those outposts there are tanks and armored vehicles,” Manda, now a security specialist in Sulaimaniya, said. “Helicopters supply the outposts daily.”

EMPTY VILLAGES

Unnamed Kurdish officials also stated that Turkey has about 80 outposts in Iraq. Another Kurdish official said at least 50 had been built in the last two years and that Turkey’s presence was becoming more permanent.

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Asked to comment on its bases in Iraq, Turkey’s defense ministry said its operations there were in line with article 51 of the U.N. Charter, which gives member states the right to self defense in the event of attacks.

“Our fight against terrorism in northern Iraq is carried out in coordination and close cooperation with the Iraqi authorities,” The ministry issued a statement that did not address any questions regarding the figures mentioned by Kurdish officials.

Turkey’s presence in northern Iraq, which has long been outside the direct control of the Baghdad government, dates back to the 1990s when former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein let Turkish forces advance 5 km into the country to fight the PKK.

Turkey has maintained a significant presence since then. Turkey claims it had a base at Bashiqa, 80km inside Iraq, as part of an international mission that trained and equipped Iraqi forces to defeat Islamic State.

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Turkey claimed it coordinated with Iraqi authorities to prevent civilian casualties.

End Cross-Border Bombing (a coalition of non-governmental organizations) published an August report that estimated at least 99 civilian deaths between 2015 and 2021. According to the International Crisis Group, 1,180 PKK militants were killed in 2015-2023.

According to an official with Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), the conflict has also emptied at least 800 villages since 2015, when a ceasefire between Turkey and the PKK broke down, driving thousands of people from their homes.

NEW TARGETS

Beyond the humanitarian impact, Turkey’s incursion risks widening the conflict by giving carte blanche to regional rival Iran to step up intelligence operations inside Iraq and take its own military action, Kurdish officials say.

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Tehran has fired missiles at Kurdish groups it accuses for participating in protests against its restrictions of women’s movement, dislocating hundreds of Iranian Kurds and some killing others.

Iran didn’t respond to our requests for comment.

Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq also have a pretext to respond to Turkey’s presence, analysts say, raising the prospect of escalation between Turkish troops and groups besides the PKK.

Hamdi Malik, a specialist on Iraqi Shi’ite militias at the Washington Institute, said pro-Iranian groups such as Liwa Ahrar al-Iraq (Free People of Iraq Brigade) and Ahrar Sinjar (Free People of Sinjar) rebranded themselves last year as the resistance against the Turkish presence.

A Washington Institute report states that attacks on Turkish military installations in Iraq have increased from 1.5 strikes per month in the beginning of 2022, to seven in April.

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Mustafa Gurbuz (a non-resident fellow at The Arab Center Washington) stated that the United States could be undercut by the actions of these groups, which are strongly hostile to Washington.

“Turkey is underestimating the strength of opposition and the fact that these facilities will become targets in the future and more so as hostilities increase,” Sajad Jiyad is a Baghdad-based analyst at The Century Foundation, an American think-tank.

‘THEY HAVE BOTH WRONGED US’

Northern Iraq’s fragmented politics mean that neither the federal government in Baghdad nor the KRG regional authority are strong enough to challenge Turkey’s presence – or to meet Ankara’s goal of containing the PKK themselves.

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The Baghdad government has complained about Ankara’s incursions but has little authority in the mainly Kurdish north, while the region’s ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) does not have the firepower to challenge the PKK, despite seeing it as a potent and populist rival.

Although the KDP has always cooperated with Turkey, it has little influence over a neighbor that has far more military and economic power.

“We ask all foreign military groups – including the PKK – to not drag the Kurdistan Region into any kind of conflicts or tensions,” Jotiar Abil, spokesperson for KRG said.

“The PKK are the main reason that pushed Turkey to enter our territories in the Kurdistan Region. Therefore, we think the PKK should leave,” He said. “We are not a side in this long-standing conflict and we have no plans to be on any side.”

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Masrour Barzani, the Iraqi Kurdish Prime Minster, stated to Reuters that the conflict between Turkey’s PKK and Turkey was a concern but not as urgent as the threat from the Islamic State.

Hariam Mahmoud is a prominent figure in Kurdistan Liberation Movement. This civilian opposition group in Iraq was influenced by Abdullah Ocalan’s ideas. He said that no matter how Turkey squeezes them, they will resist.

“In our opinion, this is an occupation and fighting resistance is a legitimate right,” Mahmoud, a resident of Garmiyan in the south of Sulaimaniya said.

Meanwhile, civilians continue to pay the price.

Ramzan Ali (72), was irrigating his Hirure field, a few kilometers from Sararo, in 2021 when he heard an enormous blast. His next memory is of being covered in blood.

He said a Turkish shell had crashed into his property – a regular occurrence when Turkish troops respond to PKK attacks with artillery.

“I watched my life flash before my eyes,” Ali stated this in Zakho, where his shrapnel wounds are still severe. “I am mad at both the PKK and Turkey. They have both wronged us.”

(Reporting done by Amina Ismail, Ahmed Rasheed Baghdad, and Kawa Omar Dohuk; Editing done by Dominic Evans & David Clarke