Russia Believes It Can Simply Wait Us Out

On March 14, 2022, soldiers from Battery A, 41st Field Artillery Regiment and 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team of the 3rd Infantry Division conduct live-fire drills using M109 Paladins at Grafenwoehr Training Area. The Pentagon announced Friday, February 17, 2023, that the first class 635 Ukrainian fighters had completed a five week advanced U.S. military training course in Germany. This included combat skills and armored vehicle training, including M109 Paladins. ((Capt. Patrick M. Connelly/U.S. Army via AP

WASHINGTON – Continued military aid for Ukraine to help beat back invading Russian forces is necessary to ward off a new era of tyrannical aggression and the U.S. must make Russian President Vladimir Putin understand the West won’t give up the fight, a panel of security experts said Friday.

“[Western aid] is critically important,” Emily Harding, deputy director of International Security Program for Center for Strategic and International Studies (a Washington think tank), said. “As much as Ukraine is doing amazing things in this war, they cannot arm themselves for a long fight.”

As the war in Ukraine approaches its one-year mark, Friday’s panel discussion was held by the think tank. The U.S. has given billions in weapons and equipment to Ukraine since the Russian forces attacked Ukraine nearly 12 months ago. The U.S. has increased the number of weapons it provides to Ukraine as the fighting is more intense and their needs to combat the Russians have grown greater. The Ukrainians even requested fighter planes to help them prepare for the expected Russian offensive in spring.

Michael Vickers, the undersecretary for defense for intelligence, was the president’s intelligence advisor for four years. He said that U.S. must send more long-range missile systems such as the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System or ATACMS.

“It’s number one on my list,” Vickers said. “We also ought to be giving them more of what they have if we’re going to win this.”

In a historic move, President Joe Biden gave Ukraine short-range bombs of small diameter. Vickers however stated that sending ATACMS to Ukraine would significantly increase its long-range capabilities. Biden has not yet responded to Ukraine’s request to acquire U.S. fighter planes. While the country does have its own planes, they are not able to fly and don’t have as much technology as F-16s, F-18s, or F-35s made in America.

Vickers stressed that it was important for the United States to send a message to Ukraine and its Western allies that they are not going anywhere. The panelists stated that if Ukraine’s support dwindles, it will only encourage Putin and other dictators who want to seize territory they desire by force.

“We need to be in this to win it and really make it clear, rather than, ‘We’re with them as long as it takes, but we hope they get this over with soon,'” Vickers said.

Russia believes we will cease to be involved in the war, Harding said.

“[Russia] thinks they can just wait us out,” She spoke. “They think they can drive wedges into the West and that, eventually, we’ll lose patience with this kind of conflict. Any signal that we send that we are not in it for the long fight just lends credence to their hope that they can wait us out.”

A poll has shown that the majority of Americans support the defense of Ukraine. However, the number could shrink as the war drags along. Experts said that Putin’s goal is to see this type of shrinking support. Many Western officials and experts believe Putin is trying to establish a new Soviet Union. This was the superpower that ruled large parts of Europe. This desire, panelists stated, could see the Ukraine war continuing into 2024 or beyond.

“Putin’s objectives haven’t changed. So, we need to show him that … not only can’t he achieve [those], he going to lose more,” Vickers said. “The only way that Ukraine can really lose is if the West, led by the United States, gives up. Then I think it would have far-reaching consequences.”

Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper and other U.S. officials have indicated their support for U.S. military aid to Ukraine. They have also said that weapons and equipment should be shipped faster because Russia can only plan and regroup in a slow-paced process.

“We have done sort of the right things, and we have said sort of the right things, but what we haven’t really seen is a sense of commitment, of urgency and scale,” Eliot Cohen, Arleigh A.Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS. “What I would like to see us do is full commitment, that we’re in this to win and to really defeat Russia.”

He claimed that fears that the U.S. might support Ukraine and provoke Russia into expanding war are unfounded.

“The escalatory argument is ridiculous,” Cohen was a former foreign policy advisor to President George W. Bush. “What exactly are the Russians going to do that they haven’t already done? They’re going to begin, what, attacking Ukrainian power plants? The only kind of escalation that would be meaningful would be nuclear weapons. There’s a whole bunch of very, very good reasons why the Russians would not do that. So, this is just one of those cases where we have been deterring ourselves.”

Biden will be traveling to Poland on Monday, bordering Ukraine on the west to celebrate the one-year anniversary of the war. Biden will give a speech in Warsaw Tuesday to explain how the U.S. will respond. “continue to stand with the people of Ukraine for as long as it takes,” According to the White House,

Biden will visit Poland and meet with Andrzej Durza, the Polish President, before returning to America on Wednesday.

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