Russia’s revamped army disappeared in just one year of conflict.

Russia’s ‘New Look’ Army Decimated by War in Ukraine

Just before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February of last year, the International Institute for Strategic Studies rated Russia’s military “far more capable” than at any time since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The assessment was based on Russia’s “New Look” modernization program that overhauled Russia’s military structure after its poor performance in Georgia in 2008. However, according to the Pentagon’s intelligence chief, the war in Ukraine has decimated the supposedly revamped army. “For the Russian military, 2022 is not a good year. The ‘New Look’ army is gone,” Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, Defense Intelligence Agency director, told the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday.

The Looming Counteroffensive

Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines described the current fighting in the east around Bakhmut and Avdiivka as a “brutally grinding war of attrition in which neither military has a definitive advantage, with day-to-day fighting over hundreds of meters.” Both sides are focusing on preparations for a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive this spring or summer. Russian forces gained less territory in April than during any of the three previous months, as they appear to transition from offensive to defensive operations along the front lines. Ukrainian armed forces are still finalizing the specific priorities, timing, and scale of the offensive.

A Very Public Spat

U.S. intelligence confirmed front-line reports that Russian forces are facing significant shortfalls in munitions, which was underscored yesterday in a viral video in which Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group mercenary force, rails against the Russian Defense Ministry in a profanity-laced rant about the lack of ammunition. In the video, a visibly angry Prigozhin points to rows of dead soldiers lined up on the ground behind him and says, “They died today. Their blood is still fresh,” as the camera pans over the gruesome scene.

• Prigozhin threatened to pull his Wagner forces out of Bakhmut “because in the absence of ammunition, they’re doomed to perish senselessly.”
• “I declare on behalf of the Wagner fighters, on behalf of the Wagner command, that on May 10, 2023, we are obliged to transfer positions in the settlement of Bakhmut to units of the defense ministry and withdraw the remains of Wagner to logistics camps to lick our wounds,” Prigozhin said in a statement.

The intelligence chiefs said they continue to assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin believes his best bet is to prolong the war as long as possible. “In my view, we are at a particularly dangerous place with Russia,” said Berrier. “Putin is not seeking an off-ramp, and Moscow has asserted publicly that it remains committed to achieving its objectives in Ukraine through military force.

Former Secretaries of Defense Urge Sen. Tuberville to End Hold on Nominations

The letter is signed by Secretaries Mark Esper, Jim Mattis, Chuck Hagel, Robert Gates, Leon Panetta, William Cohen, and William Perry.

The hold that Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) has put on nominations in an attempt to force the Pentagon to end its policy of giving leave and reimbursing travel expenses for abortions “is harming military readiness, risks damaging U.S. national security,” and “sends the wrong message to our adversaries and could weaken our deterrence,” according to a letter signed by former Secretaries of Defense.

“We appreciate that Senators can have sincere and legitimate concerns about a Pentagon policy, including as it may relate to broader domestic or social issues,” the letter reads. “However, we believe placing a hold on all uniformed nominees risks turning military officers into political pawns, holding them responsible for a policy decision made by their civilian leaders.”

The former secretaries also noted the impact on the families of senior officers, stating that “We can think of few things as irresponsible and uncaring as harming the families of those who serve our nation in uniform.”

White House Denies US Involvement in Supposed Putin Assassination Attempt

The White House has rejected the accusation from Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov that Ukraine carried out yesterday’s drone strike on a Kremlin building on orders from the United States. Peskov claimed that “We know very well that decisions on such actions and such terrorist attacks are made not in Kyiv but in Washington.”

“I would just tell you Mr. Peskov’s lying. I mean, that’s obviously a ludicrous claim,” said National Security Council spokesman John Kirby in response to the accusation. “The United States had nothing to do with this. We don’t even know exactly what happened here.”

Republican Senators Question Navy’s Use of Drag Queen in Recruitment Program

Fourteen Republican senators have written to the Navy secretary questioning a TikTok video featuring a sailor who is also a drag queen. The video features Petty Officer 2nd Class Joshua Kelley, who performs in drag under the name of “Harpy Daniels” and who has more than 60,000 followers on TikTok.

The senators wrote, “While we understand the importance of social media for modern recruiting, we are concerned about both the promotion of a banned app and behavior that many deem inappropriate in a professional workplace.”

They also asked, “Does the Navy endorse drag shows? Where does the Navy draw the line on promotion of the personal activities of its influencers? Would the Navy enlist burlesque or exotic dancers to reach possible recruits?”

At yesterday’s Pentagon briefing, deputy spokeswoman Sabrina Singh referred questions to the Navy but said the Navy “Digital Ambassador” program “was a pilot outreach effort. It was not a recruiting effort.”

Upcoming National Security Events

AY | MAY 5

• 9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “Ideas to Implementation: Priorities for NATO’s Vilnius Summit,” with Lithuanian Minister of National Defense Arvydas Anusauskas and former NATO Deputy Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/ideas-to-implementation
• 11 a.m. — Foundation for the Defense of Democracies virtual event: “Ukraine’s War of Independence: A Conversation with Amb. Oksana Markarova,” with Clifford May, founder and president, FDD org/events/2023/05/05/ukraines-war-of-independence”>https://www.fdd.org/events/2023/05/05/ukraines-war-of-independence
• 1:30 p.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace in-person and virtual event: “How to Strengthen Security Sector Assistance,” with a panel of experts including retired Lt. Gen. Karl Eikenberry, former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan, and William Taylor, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and vice president of USIP Russia and Europe Center https://www.usip.org/events/how-strengthen-security-sector-assistance
• 6:30 p.m. Sedona, Arizona — McCain Institute 2023 Sedona Forum with the theme “Indispensable Power,” May 5-6 https://www.mccaininstitute.org/resources/events

WEDNESDAY | MAY 10

• 2:30 a.m. EDT Brussels, Belgium — NATO’s highest military authority, the Military Committee, meets in person at NATO headquarters, with opening remarks by Dutch navy Adm. Rob Bauer, chairman, NATO Military Committee, and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
• 10 a.m. — House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing: “Modernizing U.S. Arms Exports and a Stronger AUKUS,” with testimony from Jessica Lewis, assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs, and Mara Karlin, assistant defense secretary for strategies, plans, and capabilities https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/modernizing-u-s-arms-exports
• 10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Schriever Spacepower Series,” with Maj. Gen. Shawn Bratton, commander, Space Training and Readiness Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/5-10
• 11:30 a.m. EDT Brussels, Belgium — Press conference with NATO leaders https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
• 2 p.m. 310 Cannon — House Homeland Security Transportation and Maritime Security Subcommittee hearing: “Evaluating High-Risk Security Vulnerabilities at our Nation’s Ports,” with testimony from Rear Adm. Wayne Arguin, assistant Coast Guard commandant for prevention policy, and other experts https://homeland.house.gov/
• 2:30 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution in-person/virtual discussion: “The U.S. Coast Guard in an increasingly complex world,” with testimony from Adm. Linda Fagan, Coast Guard commandant, and Melanie Sisson, fellow, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch-us-coast-guard

THURSDAY | MAY 11

• 10 a.m. 2154 Rayburn — House Oversight and Accountability National Security, the Border, and Foreign Affairs Subcommittee hearing: “Strengthening the Fleet: Challenges and Solutions in Naval Surface Ship Construction,” with testimony from Rear Adm. Thomas Anderson, program executive officer for ships, and Rear Adm. Casey Moton, program executive officer for unmanned and small combatants http://oversight.house.gov

TUESDAY | MAY 23

• 10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee full committee markup of H.R. 2670, the “National Defense Authorization Act for FY2024” http://www.armedservices.house.gov

WEDNESDAY | MAY 24

• 12 p.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress in-person book event: Russia’s War & The Russian People’s Understanding of the War In Ukraine, with author Jade McGlynn, research fellow, War Studies Department, King’s College, London. RSVP: [email protected]

Quote of the Day

“We neither encourage nor do we enable Ukraine to strike outside Ukraine’s borders. … We do not endorse, we do not encourage, we do not support attacks on individual leaders.”

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