But 2026 is taking a sharply different turn, with Republicans facing the prospect of nearly a handful intraparty showdowns as they fight to defend their majority, setting the stage for a cycle that could prove even more volatile than expected. 

“I think if history has shown us anything, it’s that the party in power always seems to lose seats during the midterm election, so the last thing we want is messy primaries,” said a GOP operative with experience working on Senate races, speaking on the condition of anonymity. 

“I think many of us would like to see NRSC and the White House get a bit more aggressive in preventing the candidate quality issues we saw in 2022,” the person said. “In addition, in open races, we saw a lot of success last cycle with recruitment and candidate vetting efforts.”

In 2022, the then-NRSC chief, Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), declined to put his finger on the scale in nonincumbent primaries, insisting that Republican voters, not party leadership, should decide Senate nominees. 

Trump endorsed candidates like Mehmet Oz, Blake Masters and Herschel Walker who went on to lose their general elections, drawing backlash and prompting criticism that Scott’s neutrality paved the way for less electable contenders.

While it’s still early, a number of primaries have emerged in races that feature incumbents and in open seats. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), the current chairman, has vowed to defend incumbents, while evaluating other races individually. 

The South Carolina Senator said he would like to not only defend the Senate’s 53-seat majority, but expand it to 55 next year, according to comments he made in a closed-door meeting with GOP senators in recent weeks.

“We want to make sure that the president and I are on the same page on these issues,” Scott said in an interview with Axios. 

The GOP campaign arm has taken different strategies over the years, from getting involved in Republican primaries to taking an arm’s-length approach.

In 2014, the committee took a more active role in contested primaries after being burned by intraparty warfare in the previous two election cycles. That year was a major success, with Republicans taking back control of the upper chamber.

The NRSC did not respond to a request for comment from the Washington Examiner. 

Competitive Republican primaries on the horizon

Texas is shaping up to host what’s likely to be the costliest Republican primary of the cycle, as Attorney General Ken Paxton mounts a challenge against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX). Cornyn’s race is drawing the most attention due to his senior standing in the GOP conference and his long-running feud with Paxton, a staunch Trump supporter.

In Louisiana, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) is gearing up for a primary fight against Treasurer John Fleming. The incumbent senator has been a frequent target of Trump allies, largely due to his vote to convict the former president in his second impeachment trial for his role in the events of Jan. 6, 2021. 

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) is already contending with primary opponents and may face an additional challenge from Michele Morrow, a controversial figure who lost a bid for state superintendent of public instruction last year. Years of conservative pushback over Tillis’s bipartisan record have stirred discontent on the right.

Several open-seat and Democrat-held states are also poised for competitive Republican primaries, as the GOP navigates a dynamic electoral landscape.

In the race to replace retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Daniel Cameron, Kentucky’s former attorney general, is the only declared candidate in the race so far. Cameron is expected to face off against Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY), who has not announced a run but is expected to within the next week. 

After losing to Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) in the November Senate race, former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers entered the Michigan Senate race last week to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI). Rogers may face a primary challenge from Rep. Bill Huizinga (R-MI)

The Georgia GOP primary remains a wild card, with the potential to clear quickly if Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) jumps in — but if he opts not to run, a packed field could emerge in short order.

Republicans are counting on Trump to help them avoid disruptive primary challenges that could throw their Senate strategy off course next year — but they also recognize that one word from him could unravel it all.

“The real question is whether [Senate Majority Leader John] Thune and Scott can get Trump to at least be neutral in the races where there’s a credible primary challenger,” Dennis Lennox, a GOP strategist based in Michigan, said. “Republicans are going to be fighting against strong headwinds next year. They can’t waste money shoring up incumbents who are reliable on all the votes that truly matter.”

There are some early concerns that Trump may not be willing to throw his weight behind Cassidy, even though he has sided with the president on key Republican priorities this year, most notably casting a pivotal vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. 

“The impeachment vote is still something Trump and his team are holding on to — I think the best case scenario is that Trump just stays out of that race,” a GOP consultant, granted permission to speak anonymously, said. “The good news is that Louisiana is such a red state that I don’t believe it could be a real Democratic target — but even still, we don’t know what the conditions of this cycle will be, and I don’t think we should be in the practice of ousting incumbents.”

A Trump-backed challenge to Cassidy would put him at odds with both Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, which supports incumbents, and could drain resources Republicans need for competitive general election battles.

Meanwhile, Lennox said he’s also watching Vice President JD Vance closely, noting any endorsements he may make could carry major political influence.

“Vance is almost certainly the Republican nominee in 2028 — assuming Republicans don’t lose both of their congressional majorities in the midterms. Does he play it safe? His endorsements, if he makes them, are going to start mattering big time,” he explained. 

“Vance doesn’t want to be stuck in the Senate casting tiebreaking votes, which could happen if he or the White House go against incumbent Republican senators,” Lennox said.