Key state races to monitor in the upcoming 2023 elections.
Key State Elections in 2023 Could Shape the 2024 Election
While the 2023 elections may not include presidential or congressional races, they are still crucial as they could determine which party controls state governments and ultimately influence the 2024 election.
Several states are hosting various elections simultaneously, making it an exciting time for politics. Among them, six states are holding referendums, four states have legislative elections (two of which also have gubernatorial contests), and one state is having a Supreme Court race. Notably, Kentucky’s gubernatorial race, Ohio’s abortion ballot measure, Virginia’s General Assembly race, and Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court race are the most high-profile races to watch.
Virginia: A Battleground for Legislative Control
Virginia is a state to keep a close eye on as Republicans aim to hold the House and flip the Senate, which would be a significant legislative victory for Governor Glenn Youngkin (R-VA). The control of the House will be determined by ten closely contested races, where districts won by President Joe Biden in 2020 were either lost or nearly lost by former Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe in his 2021 faceoff with Youngkin. In the Senate, two out of the six close contests have incumbents running, one from each party.
Republicans in Virginia are making a strong push for voter turnout in the traditionally low-enthusiasm off-year elections. Youngkin’s approval rating and legislative record have positioned him as a potential White House contender in the future. On the other hand, Virginia Democrats have emphasized their ability to work with the Republican governor in their campaign ads, avoiding direct association with state Republicans.
Money is pouring into Virginia’s election from both within the state and across the nation. Notably, four Democrats running in battleground state Senate districts received significant out-of-state donations just days before the 2023 election from a nonprofit group backed by Governor J.B. Pritzker (D-IL). Abortion has taken center stage in Virginia’s elections, with Youngkin pledging to sign an abortion limit at 15 weeks of gestation if Republicans gain control of the legislature. Democrats have countered by highlighting the GOP’s plans as “extreme” and “terrifying” in their campaign messaging.
Ohio: A Crucial Vote on Reproductive Rights
Ohio voters will head to the polls to decide on Issue 1, which aims to protect the right to make reproductive decisions, including contraception, fertility treatments, miscarriage care, and abortions. The amendment’s summary, written by Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose, has faced legal challenges due to its language replacing medical terms with ”unborn child.” Anti-abortion advocates are hoping for a victory in November, as populist-leaning Republicans are expected to play a decisive role in the vote.
Opponents of Issue 1 argue that it could pave the way for future abortion amendments in the 2024 election season. Similar efforts are underway in several states, including Florida, South Dakota, Oklahoma, and Nebraska, to meet the thresholds required for abortion rights amendments to appear on the ballot.
Kentucky: A High-Stakes Governor’s Race
The most high-profile race in Kentucky is the governor’s race between incumbent Governor Andy Beshear (D-KY) and Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron. Beshear, the nation’s most popular Democratic governor, faces a tough challenge from Cameron, who has garnered national Republican endorsements, including from former President Donald Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).
Beshear has maintained a slight lead in the polls and has a cash advantage over Cameron. The race has been marked by Cameron’s efforts to tie Beshear to President Joe Biden and left-leaning policy stances. If Beshear secures another term, it would be a departure from the state’s Republican-leaning history.
Pennsylvania: Influential Supreme Court Race
The outcome of the state Supreme Court race in Pennsylvania could have significant implications for the 2024 election. Currently, Democrats hold a 4-3 majority in the high court. Republican Carolyn Carluccio will face off against Democrat Daniel McCaffery to replace the late Democratic Justice Max Baer for a 10-year term. A win for Carluccio would give Republicans one more vote in favor of right-leaning policies, while a victory for McCaffery would increase the Democratic majority.
Abortion has become a central issue in the Pennsylvania Supreme Court race, particularly after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022. Carluccio has expressed anti-abortion sentiments, while McCaffery has been vocal about his support for abortion rights. The race has been heavily influenced by TV advertising, as many voters still lack sufficient knowledge about the candidates.
These key state elections in 2023 are not to be underestimated, as they have the potential to shape the political landscape leading up to the 2024 election.
How could the outcome of Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court race affect future elections, including the 2024 election
For a future abortion ban. A win for proponents of Issue 1 in Ohio could set a precedent and energize anti-abortion movements in other states, ultimately shaping the national abortion debate leading up to the 2024 election.
Kentucky: A Highly Contested Gubernatorial Race
Kentucky’s gubernatorial race is one of the most closely watched contests in the 2023 elections. Governor Andy Beshear (D-KY) is seeking re-election, and he faces a tough challenge from Republican State Attorney General Daniel Cameron. Beshear’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and his efforts to expand healthcare access have been central issues in the campaign. On the other hand, Cameron has positioned himself as a law-and-order candidate, emphasizing his support for police and conservative values.
The Kentucky race could have implications for the 2024 presidential election, as it may serve as a test of political sentiment in a state that has historically leaned conservative. Beshear’s victory in 2019 was seen as a surprising upset in a deeply Republican state, and a re-election for the Democratic governor could suggest a shifting political landscape. Conversely, a win for Cameron could bolster Republican confidence heading into the 2024 race.
Pennsylvania: The Battle for the Supreme Court
While judicial races may not draw as much attention as other elections, Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court race is significant due to its potential impact on future elections. The state’s Supreme Court has played a critical role in redistricting battles, with rulings that have affected the balance of power in the state legislature and the delegation to Congress.
In the upcoming race, Republicans are hoping to maintain their majority on the court, while Democrats are looking to gain seats and potentially shift the court’s ideological balance. The outcome of this race could have long-lasting effects on electoral maps in Pennsylvania, influencing the outcome of future congressional and legislative races, including the 2024 election.
The Broader Implications
While the 2023 elections may not capture the national spotlight like a presidential or congressional race, their outcomes carry significant weight. The composition of state governments can shape policies and impact the lives of citizens in numerous ways. Moreover, these state-level elections serve as a testing ground for political strategies and messaging that parties and candidates will employ in the 2024 election.
Key races in Virginia, Ohio, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania highlight the broader impact of the 2023 elections. The outcomes of these races could shape the political landscape, influence future policy decisions, and set the stage for the 2024 election. As voters head to the polls, the stakes are high, and the results will reverberate beyond the borders of these key states.
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