Campaigns Struggle to Qualify for GOP Debate, One Dollar at a Time

The Countdown to the First GOP Presidential Debate

After nearly six months of grueling state primaries, the GOP’s 2024 presidential candidate will be formally confirmed as the party’s nominee during the July 15–18, 2024, Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

But while there are 376 days of campaigning between now—July 6, 2023—and then, another far more pressing timeline is posing an existential challenge for as many as half the 14 candidates in the GOP presidential race.

There are just 46 days to qualify for the first Republican presidential debate on Aug. 23 in Milwaukee. With fewer than seven weeks to go, campaigns for several lesser-known candidates are scrambling to meet required polling numbers and to collect the 40,000 individual campaign donors needed to make the stage.

At least one candidate, former Texas Rep. Will Hurd, who only launched his long-shot campaign in late June, has also balked at a third Republican National Committee (RNC) debate requirement: Participants must sign an oath pledging to support the party’s candidate regardless who it is in the Nov. 5, 2024, election.

Other candidates, including former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, and former President Donald Trump, have also either criticized or been non-committal about signing the pledge.

And, of course, the viability of the whole 2024 RNC presidential debate program is in doubt in terms of impact and appeal if Mr. Trump follows through with his threat to not participate in the Milwaukee debate or a second one tentatively set for the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California.

Fear not, Mr. Christie said in a July 4 Twitter post, the former president is going to be on that RNC debate stage in Fiserv Forum.

“The only thing bigger than Trump’s mouth is his ego & neither will let him skip a debate. Ranting on his fake Twitter all day won’t change the fact he loves cameras more than he loves himself,” he wrote. “He’ll be on the stage and so will I.”

Mr. Christie is likely to meet the criteria to make the Aug. 23 stage, as are Mr. Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Hailey, and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramasawamy.

But as many as seven other candidates’ campaigns may fall short. On the bubble are the campaigns for Mr. Hutchinson, conservative talk show host Larry Elder, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez.

Unlikely to qualify for the debate are Michigan businessman Perry Johnson, Texas entrepreneur Ryan Binkley, and Mr. Hurd, who has disqualified himself anyway by saying he won’t sign the loyalty pledge.

Failing to qualify for the first debate and gain the national exposure being on that stage could provide may be the death knell for several long-shot campaigns; several are likely to withdraw from the race after that first debate and before the next federal campaign finance report filing deadline on Oct. 1.

Polls, Donors, Questions

The RNC only released the debate qualifications on June 2. It breaks them down into three categories: Polling, fundraising, and candidate pledge.

The debate polling criteria requires candidates to poll at least 1 percent in three national polls, or 1 percent in two national polls and 1 percent in one of the four early Republican primary states—Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.

Several campaigns say the criteria is confusing, especially a stipulation requiring them to verify at least “800 registered likely Republican voters” participated in a survey before it can be accepted by the RNC.

Mr. Burgum’s and Mr. Suarez’s campaigns are among those that say it unfairly penalizes candidates who don’t have prominent name recognition beyond their states.

The polls must be conducted between July 1 and Aug. 21, two days before the first debate.

The fundraising qualification requires candidates to garner at least 40,000 “unique” donors, including at least 200 unique donors from 20 or more states and territories. Several candidates, such as Mr. Burgum and Mr. Johnson, could self-finance much of their campaigns but may struggle to capture the 40,000 individual donor mark.

The RNC and Chair Ronna McDaniel has defended the threshold requirements as a precursory “success metric” to weed out marginal campaigns and to avoid a repeat of 2016’s two-tiered, two-night debates.

Although the idea is to get all candidates on the same stage at the same time, the RNC has nevertheless scheduled a second night of debate is scheduled for Aug. 24 should there be too many to squeeze onto the stage.

Mr. Hutchinson and Mr. Elder are among candidates who insist the polling and donor requirements are too burdensome this early in a campaign.

But the RNC notes if a candidate cannot garner a donation—even for as little as $1—from 40,000 people when there were 2.5 million donors who gave in 2022 to WinRed, the primary GOP fundraising platform, then maybe they don’t belong in the 2024 race.

Taking The Vow

Only candidates that meet the polling and donor requirements will be required to sign the loyalty pledge by Aug. 21. They must also pledge to not participate in any non-RNC sanctioned debate for the remainder of the election cycle and to support a data-sharing agreement with the national party committee.

Ms. McDaniel has repeatedly issued statements in support of making debate participants mandatory to sign the loyalty pledge.

In February she said it was a “no-brainer” measure to ensure the party “all come together and unite behind our nominee to defeat Joe Biden and the Democrats.”

Mr. Hutchinson tried to convince the RNC to amend the pledge to only say candidates who don’t get the party nod would vow not to run a third-party campaign.

Mr. Christie backed that proposal, which was rejected by the RNC.

While Mr. Christie told Axios in March that there was “no way” he’d sign such a pledge if Mr. Trump wins the nomination and called it “a useless idea” during his CNN Town Hall in later interviews he’s said he might sign it to get on the debate stage and ignore it later.

Mr. DeSantis has said he’d sign the pledge as a way to “respect the process” and “people’s decisions.”

Mr. Pence said during his CNN Town Hall he’d sign the pledge despite previous comments that Mr. Trump’s role in the Jan. 6, 2021, capitol breach should disqualify him from the race.

Ms. Haley, Mr. Scott, Mr. Ramaswamy, Mr. Elder, Mr. Burgum, Mr. Suarez, and Mr. Johnson have all said they’d sign the pledge.

Mr. Trump has not said he would sign the pledge. He said in February “it would depend” who that ca