Study: Japan School Closures in Spring 2020 Did Not Stop Virus Spread

School closures across Japan in spring 2020 did not prevent the spread of the Chinese coronavirus, according to a new study published by the medical journal Nature Medicine, the U.K.’s Daily Mail reported Monday.

“Empirically, we find no evidence that school closures in Japan caused a significant reduction in the number of coronavirus cases,” the study’s authors wrote.

“These null results concerning the supposed benefits of closing schools suggest that policymakers should be cautious when considering similar policies in the future, especially given the substantial costs such policies can have for the well-being of both children and parents,” the study warned.

A team of researchers from Gakushuin University in Tokyo, Shizuoka University in Shizuoka, and Harvard University in Massachusetts studied the effects of school shutdowns across 847 municipalities in Japan starting on March 2, 2020. The study included data from 27 of Japan’s 47 total prefectures.

“To estimate the causal effects strictly in Japan in spring 2020, we compared the number of cases between municipalities with open schools and municipalities with closed schools,” the study’s authors wrote.

The researchers said they selected both municipalities with shuttered schools and those with open schools “so that they are similar in terms of dozens of features (for example, past number of cases; social, economic and political factors; and NPIs [national public initiatives] other than school closures such as stay-at-home warnings and business closures).”

The study examined the number of new coronavirus cases per 100,000 residents in both types of municipalities from March 4 to June 1, 2020.

“[W]e did not find any evidence that school closures significantly decreased the spread of COVID-19,” the authors wrote.

“Our results suggest that the effect of school closures on COVID-19 cases in Japan in early 2020 is not significantly different from zero,” the researchers stated.

“Our null results suggest that policies on school closures should be reexamined given the potential negative consequences for children and parents,” the study added.

Japan’s government has ruled out shutting down the country’s public schools to curb the spread of coronavirus moving forward.

“The government will not seek such blanket school closures,” Japanese Education Minister Hagiuda Koichi told reporters at a news conference on August 20, noting that he referred to elementary, middle, and high schools.

“We will protect children’s opportunities for learning as much as possible,” the education minister added.

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