Swing-state scorecard: Harris and Trump locked in coin-flip contest – Washington Examiner
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are ramping up their campaigns to energize supporters and sway undecided voters. With early voting already in full swing, having seen at least 15 million votes cast, the race appears tight, with various polls indicating a close contest between the two candidates.
In battleground states, Trump seems to hold a slight edge according to some polling averages, though other surveys, like the Washington Post–Schar School poll, show both candidates in a dead heat. Each candidate is concentrating their efforts in crucial states where victory is essential for their campaign.
Kamala Harris is focusing on states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, aiming to engage disillusioned Republicans by campaigning alongside former Rep. Liz Cheney. Additionally, she plans to rally support from Black voters with the assistance of former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama.
Conversely, Trump is targeting North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, where victories could significantly bolster his chances of a second term. He also plans to hold rallies in Nevada and New York.
Polling data has recently been analyzed to identify which battleground states are most challenging for Harris. Among these states, Arizona has emerged as the most difficult for her campaign, with Trump leading in several polls. Georgia follows closely behind, with competitive polling results indicating that Democrats are actively trying to mobilize Black voters.
Michigan remains a critical state for Harris, with fluctuating polling results showing her slightly ahead in some surveys but neck-and-neck in others. North Carolina and Pennsylvania are also notable as both candidates seek to solidify their positions there.
As the election date approaches and casual voters begin to focus on the race, these battleground states will be key to determining the ultimate outcome of the presidential election.
Swing-state scorecard: Harris and Trump in coin-flip contest in battlegrounds
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are running against the clock to convince their supporters to turn out and fence-sitters to back them.
With early voting well underway with at least 15 million votes cast, Harris and Trump are locked in a coin-flip contest two weeks out before Election Day.
Some battleground polls, such as the RealClearPolitics polling average, show Trump with a slight advantage over Harris, while a Washington Post–Schar School survey shows both candidates tied in the battlegrounds.
Both Harris and Trump are spending the final two weeks stumping in states where they must win. The vice president is spending part of this week traveling in the blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin with former Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney to shore up support among disaffected Republicans.
Harris will also hit the campaign trail with former President Barack Obama and former first lady Michelle Obama as she seeks to rejuvenate disaffected black voters.
Trump, meanwhile, is stumping in North Carolina and Georgia, two states that will likely ensure a second term if he wins both states, and Pennsylvania. He’ll also head to Nevada and his former home state New York for rallies this week.
As casual voters begin truly paying attention to the election, the Washington Examiner reranked the battleground states according to which will be the hardest for the vice president to win.
2024 ELECTIONS LIVE UPDATES: LATEST NEWS ON THE TRUMP-HARRIS PRESIDENTIAL RACE
1. Arizona
Arizona remains the hardest battleground state for Harris to win for the second week in a row since the swing-state scorecard was published this year due to Trump maintaining his polling lead.
According to a RealClearPolitics polling average, Trump leads Harri, 49% to 47.4%, while the New York Times polling average has Trump leading 50% to 48%. The Washington Post survey shows Trump is strongest in Arizona, with a 6-point lead among registered voters and a 3-point lead among likely voters.
Harris tapped Barack Obama to stump in the state last week when he slammed Trump’s mental fitness to serve another term as president and is leaning on centrist GOP supporters of the late Sen. John McCain to help her win the state.
2. Georgia
Like Arizona, Georgia also maintained its second-place status in the scorecard ranking for the second week in a row as Trump continues to lead in polls.
According to the RealClearPolitics polling average in the Peach State, Trump bests Harris 48.8% to 47%, while the New York Times polling average shows Trump leading 49% to 48%.
However, the Washington Post survey shows Harris’s support is strongest in Georgia where she leads by 6 points among registered voters and 4 points among likely voters.
Harris spent part of her 60th birthday in the state on Sunday, where the musical superstar Stevie Wonder serenaded her. The vice president visited two churches as part of the “Souls to the Polls” initiative to turn out black voters and on Thursday, Barack Obama will join Harris in the Peach State.
Trump spent Sunday working at a McDonald’s in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, as he accused Harris of lying about working at the fast-food restaurant.
3. Michigan
Harris appeared in Michigan on Monday with Cheney, a hardcore Trump opponent, as she seeks to win over Republicans and maintain her slim lead in the state.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average in the Wolverine State, Harris slightly leads Trump 47.4% to 47.2%. Harris also has a slight lead among likely voters in the state, 49% to 47%, according to the Washington Post survey.
But the New York Times polling average shows Harris and Trump tied at 48%, and RealClearPolitics’s average shows Trump leading 48.8% to 47.6%.
Both candidates appeared in the state on Friday, where Harris knocked Trump for canceling interviews due to exhaustion and Trump claimed he would boost American manufacturing by imposing steep tariffs.
Michelle Obama is also set to stump with Harris in the state on Saturday for the first time this election cycle.
But the vice president will still have to figure out how to win over the sizable Arab and Muslim population that wants the Biden-Harris administration to end U.S. support to Israel in its battle against Hamas due to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Michigan is the state where the “Uncommitted” movement against President Joe Biden began during the presidential primaries.
4. North Carolina
The Tar Heel State, once seen as in jeopardy for Trump due to the Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s online activity, appears to lean slightly more in the former president’s favor.
According to a RealClearPolitics polling average, Trump leads Harris 48.4% to 47.9%. He also leads Harris in the state 48.1% to 47.3% in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
Trump has one of his largest leads in the state among likely voters, where he bests Harris 50% to 47%, according to the Washington Post.
But the New York Times polling average shows the two candidates tied at 48%, and a Quinnipiac University poll shows Harris leading 49% to 47%.
Second gentleman Doug Emhoff will campaign in the state Tuesday in a bid to convince voters to cast their ballots early while Trump held three rallies in the state on Monday. Former President Bill Clinton and Harris’s running mate, Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), also stumped in the state last week.
5. Pennsylvania
The Keystone State is a must-win for Harris if she wants to secure a White House victory, but polling shows a complicated picture. According to a RealClearPolitics polling average, Trump is leading at 47.9% to 47.1%, while a FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Trump with a narrower lead, 47.8% to 47.4%.
However, the Washington Post survey shows Harris leading among likely voters 49% to 47%, and the New York Times polling average shows the two candidates tied at 48%.
On Monday, Harris and Cheney appeared in the state along with Charles Sykes, editor-in-chief of the website the Bulwark, and GOP strategist Sarah Longwell as they seek to reach supporters of former Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley.
Harris will also appear in the state on Wednesday for a town hall hosted by CNN. Trump did not accept the network’s invitation to a town hall.
6. Nevada
The Silver State’s diverse and itinerant population may make the state difficult to campaign in and for pollsters to survey.
Both the Washington Post and the New York Times polling average have Harris and Trump tied at 48%.
FiveThirtyEight’s polling average has Harris leading slightly, 47.4% to 47.1%, while the RealClearPolitics polling average shows Trump leading 47.7% to 46.9%.
But the state last voted for a Republican presidential candidate in 2004, and Democrats may be able to replicate the former Democratic Sen. Harry Reid machine again this cycle, which could all help Harris eke out a win in the state.
Obama also stumped in the state for the vice president on Saturday, where he denigrated Trump and praised Harris’s economic proposals.
7. Wisconsin
Waukesha County, Wisconsin, is the third state that Cheney and Harris visited on Monday evening as they continued their efforts to flip Republican voters.
Harris has a slight lead in the state among likely voters, 50% to 47%, according to the Washington Post.
The New York Times polling average shows Harris with a 1-point lead, 49% to 48%, while the FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Harris barely leading, 47.8% to 47.6%. RealClearPolitics‘s polling average also has Trump barely leading, 48% to 47.8%.
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