After November’s surprise blitz in Idlib, Syria, anti-government forces took Syria’s second-largest city, Aleppo, almost without a fight. Assad’s Syrian Arab Army withdrew south to Hama to consolidate its defensive lines, seemingly stabilizing the front around the strategic city. The forces of Hayat Tahrir al Sham, an outgrowth of al Qaeda, surprised the world once again by launching a renewed offensive against Hama. The offensive broke through SAA defensive lines around Hama in a pincer movement, leading to its withdrawal from the city Thursday.

“During the past hours, with the intensification of confrontations between our soldiers and terrorist groups and the rise of a number of martyrs among our forces, these groups were able to penetrate several axes in the city and enter it, despite suffering heavy losses in their ranks,” the general command of the army and armed forces of the SAA said in a statement.

“In order to preserve the lives of civilians in Hama and not to involve them in battles inside the cities, the military units stationed there redeployed and repositioned themselves outside the city,” they added.

The statement maintained that the SAA will work to reclaim the areas.

Videos published on social media showed HTS forces being greeted by supporters upon entering the city. One of their first moves was to open the prisons to free political prisoners. Videos show hundreds of inmates being greeted by supporters.

Footage of clashes shows armored columns of HTS-led forces speeding through SAA lines, leading to a flight of SAA soldiers. In one video, panicked SAA vehicles are intercepted by HTS tanks and other armored fighting vehicles, being driven off the road or run over.

The loss of Hama is a massive blow to the Assad government, with the city possessing great strategic and symbolic value.

On a strategic level, the city was the government’s last major population center before Homs, a hub that connects the M5 motorway to the capital and Syria’s access to the Mediterranean Sea. If Homs is taken, Syria will effectively be split in two. The coastline is also the regime’s heartland, possessing the greatest share of Alawites and Christians — Assad’s biggest supporters.

On a symbolic level, Hama was the sight of the brutal crushing of an Islamist uprising by the Muslim Brotherhood in 1982 by Assad’s father, Hafez al Assad. In the nearly monthlong siege, the SAA surrounded and bombarded the city into submission, killing an estimated 10,000 to 40,000 people. The legacy of the incident played prominently in the 2011 protests and ensuing civil war, feeding a feeling of resentment among the rebels. It also served as a byword for government brutality, with older Syrians warning that Bashar Assad would “do Hama again” if the youth protested.

More directly, Muslim Brotherhood survivors served as direct inspirations for many Islamist movements that have taken up arms in the country’s civil war. Disciples of one prominent Syrian Muslim Brotherhood member, Abul-Abbas al Shami, went on to found the Ahrar al Sham Islamic Movement, a powerful militant group that helped take Hama on Thursday.

In his first video statement announcing the taking of Hama, HTS Emir Abu Mohammad al Julani referenced the 1982 uprising.

“I have good news for you, my brothers, that your brothers, the Mujahideen revolutionaries, have begun to enter the city of Hama to cleanse that wound that has continued in Syria for 40 years,” he said.

Keeping with his rebrand toward moderation, he said it was a conquest “free of revenge” and a “conquest entirely of mercy and love.”

In a decree Monday, Julani, who once served as head of Syria’s al Qaeda affiliate, declared, “In the future Syria, we believe that diversity is our strength, not a weakness.”

Shortly after the fall of Hama, the Syrian Arab News Agency reported that Damascus’s air defenses had shot down several enemy drones — the first-ever drone attack by rebels against the capital.

The situation is worse for Bashar Assad than at any time since September 2015. Its savior at that time, Russia, is assisting with some air assets and missile strikes but is largely distracted by its war in Ukraine.

Bashar Assad’s main hope is Iran and its proxy militias, which are reeling from recent fighting against Israel. Hezbollah and some Iraqi Shiite militias have reportedly been deployed to Syria in recent days but are largely defensive in posture. A Hezbollah fighter and Iraqi militia commanders speaking with the Washington Post said they are waiting for orders for their next move.

Iran sent thousands of proxy fighters to assist Bashar Assad in the early years of the country’s civil war, but such forces may not be enough to save the SAA. Footage from recent fighting shows massive quantities of Syrian tanks, equipment, and armored vehicles seemingly abandoned. Bashar Assad’s recent decree granting a 50% raise in base salaries for SAA military personnel may not be sufficient.

The Iranian government is now floating the prospect of a direct military intervention.

“If the Syrian government wants us to deploy troops in Syria, we’ll consider their request,” Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview with the United Kingdom-based newspaper Al Araby Al Jadeed.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is already heavily embedded in Syria, with Israel killing many top commanders in strikes within the country.

The Iraqi government, closely linked with Iran, is also floating the possibility of an intervention.

Bashar Assad received the public backing of the most prestigious group in the Muslim world of the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance — the Houthis. Houthi Spokesman Mohammed al Bukhaiti said in a Tuesday statement that Bashar Assad was the only Arab head of state who hadn’t abandoned the Palestinian and Lebanese cause and that the offensive’s “ultimate goal” was to “cut off the resistance’s supply route in service of Israel.”

Hezbollah also reiterated its support, with newly inaugurated Secretary-General Naim Qassem saying in a Thursday speech that the group would “stand with Syria to thwart this aggression.” He denounced HTS and its allies as “tools of Israel and America.”