Summit with a limit: Take Five

What’s Happening in the Markets This Week?

1. Hogging the G7 Spotlight

As world leaders prepare to meet at a G7 summit in Japan, the question of how to avert a potentially disastrous U.S. default is on everyone’s mind. With bipartisan divides running deep, President Joe Biden has hinted he may not even make it to Hiroshima at the weekend. That would complicate a reported side summit with Japan and South Korea on strengthening security cooperation. Host nation Japan has more at stake than many in this standoff: It is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt.

2. Erdogan and the Economy

President Tayyip Erdogan led comfortably in the first round of Turkey’s election with his rival now facing an uphill struggle to prevent him extending his rule into a third decade in a runoff vote on May 28. The presidential vote will decide not only who leads Turkey and shapes the foreign policy of the NATO-member country of 85 million people, but also how it is governed and its economic future amid a deep cost-of-living crisis. The challenges for whoever ends up at the helm of Turkey will be enormous.

3. Going Against the Grain

Russia and Ukraine have until May 18 to extend the Black Sea grain deal, which last year allowed the safe passage of Ukrainian exports to help tackle a global food crisis. The two sides could extend the agreement, but Russia says it will walk unless its demands to remove obstacles to its own exports are met. The two are among the world’s biggest exporters and supply some of the poorest countries. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, wheat futures have dropped by more than 50% from record highs. World food prices have cooled off and the upcoming global harvest is projected to be healthy. That suggests an interruption might not have the same impact as the initial blockade.

4. Data Dive

A batch of key economic data will shed fresh light on whether the United States is staving off a downturn given Federal Reserve rate hikes. Tuesday’s retail sales data will gauge the health of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity. Reports are also due on industrial production and housing starts, while the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey could also influence asset prices next week.

5. How Resilient?

The week ahead brings current and historic assessments of euro area economic growth, with Q1 GDP data and the influential ZEW Institute surveys of business conditions and sentiment in European power house economy Germany. Economists polled by Reuters expect to see the “flash” estimate will show the euro area eked out growth of just 0.1% in the three months to March. Some economists say stagnation has continued and could result in a recession later this year.

• None of this is guaranteed to dissuade the European Central Bank from continuing to raise rates, as core inflation, at 5.6% in April, remains too far above its 2% target to overlook.

Compiled by Amanda Cooper; Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe and Andrew Heavens

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