Ten More House Races Shift in GOP’s Favor

Ten more House seats in reliably blue districts have been shifted in the GOP’s favor just one week ahead of Election Day, spelling trouble for Democrats in areas where President Joe Biden cruised to victory in 2020.

Two seats in New York and one in California have been moved from leaning Democratic to now being deemed toss-ups, giving Republicans hope for extra pickup opportunities as they seek to gain control of the House for the next two years. Additionally, a toss-up race in Oregon has been updated to lean Republican, according to the latest ratings from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. 

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“I’ve never seen an election where the signs are this divergent and … lumpy,” a veteran Democratic strategist familiar with polling in several races told the outlet. “It’s less nationalized than we’re accustomed to, and there’s more weakness in the blue end of the battlefield.”

Another five races have been shifted from being “likely Democratic” to “lean Democratic” and one House race in New York has moved from being “solid Democrat” to “likely Democrat.”

The updated ratings set the stage for a number of upsets in areas where Democrats were once predicted to win easily but now face tough challenges from their Republican opponents.

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Many of these are in blue states where there are no competitive statewide races motivating voter turnout and Democratic governors have been underperforming, giving GOP candidates an edge. Republicans have also been able to seize on rising crime rates in the areas where Democrats are struggling.

All 435 House seats are up for grabs in the 2022 midterm elections, with both parties vying to seize control of the lower chamber for the next two years. As of Tuesday, at least 212 seats lean toward Republicans, 188 lean toward Democrats, and 35 remain toss-ups, according to the Cook Political Report. The RealClearPolitics House map currently 228 Republican, 174 Democratic, and 33 toss-ups.