Thanks To Needless Covid School Lockdowns, Your Kids’ Lifetime Earning Potential Plummeted

The Covid pandemic has affected all of us differently, but no one lost more than America’s youth.

The National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), which was released last fall, revealed the learning losses of American children during lockdowns. Data A sharp decline in the test scores of fourth- and eighth-graders was evident. Eric Hanushek from Stanford University’s Hoover Institution based his findings. Estimate the economic cost of these learning losses will have substantial long-term negative effects on students’ lifetime earnings and the overall U.S. economy. 

Hanushek specialized in economic analysis of eighth-graders, as these students are at a developmental crossroads and their academic performance can be a critical indicator of their future success. NAEP data shows this is why eighth-grade test scores are so alarming. In 2022, eighth graders will have an average reading score of 83 points. Rejected Comparable to 2019, by 3 points “was lower compared to all previous assessment years going back to 1998.” The eighth-grade average math score Slashed By 8 points in comparison to 2019 “was lower than all previous assessment years going back to 2003.”

Hanushek’s analysis has three key findings. First, today’s learning losses suggest significant future economic losses for students because extensive research has shown that “those with higher achievement and greater cognitive skills earn more.” Hanushek estimates “the average student during the pandemic will have 5.6 percent lower lifetime earnings. This figure compares the expected earnings given the eight-point loss in math achievement to what could have been expected without the pandemic.” 

Depending on which state the student was in during the pandemic, students’ learning losses and associated future-income effects are drastically different across states. Utah students who had lost an average of 2.7 points in math can expect to lose less than 2% in their lifetime income. However, Delaware students who had their math scores fall by more than 12 percentage points can expect to see a loss of nearly 9 percent in their future income. The wide ranges have more to do with how states responded to Covid  (i.e., the length of school closures and remote learning) than the quality of their public education before the pandemic. 

Massachusetts is known for its quality public education, pre-Covid. The state closed its schools until May 2021 due to the pandemic. Massachusetts became the first state to declare bankruptcy. saw its eighth graders’ reading scores decline by more than 4 points and math scores by more than 10 points in 2022 compared to 2019. Hanushek predicts that these learning losses will result in Massachusetts students who are part of the Covid cohort earning 7.6 percent less over their lifetimes. Texas, on the other hand, reopened its schools in fall 2020. The state saw its eighth graders’ reading scores decline by less than 1 point, and math scores drop by about 7 points in 2022 compared to 2019.

On average, Texas students who are part of the Covid cohort will earn 4.9 percent less in their lifetimes. This comparison shows how important policy responses to the pandemic are state-by-state.

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