The Great Tank Debate Now Shifts to the Great F-16 Debate

A FLAT ‘NO’: It’s the same underlying question: Is the United States willing to give Ukraine the weapons it needs to defeat Russia this year or just enough not to lose? Now the debate is about Ukrainian President versus main battle tanks Volodymyr Zelensky’s Urgent pleas for modern fighter planes, specifically U.S. F-16s. 50 C/D models are being retired.

Yesterday, point-blank He stepped off Marine One On President’s Return to the White House, if the U.S. will supply F-16s to Ukraine Joe Biden The simple explanation was that it was easy. “no.”

Ukraine isn’t giving up. As Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba of the German refusal not to send tanks to Ukraine “It’s always a similar pattern: First they say ‘no,’ then they fiercely defend their decision, only to say ‘yes’ in the end.”

“We need decisions. We would like to involve as many countries as possible in the tank coalition to have success on the battlefield,” said Zelensky yesterday after meeting with Denmark’s prime minister in the southern port city of Odesa. “Because sometimes good decisions, when slowed down, end up being weak.”

BIDEN STATES US WON’T PROVIDE UKRAINE INCLUDING FIGHTER JETS

A LOT MORE OF THIS COULD BE DONE SOONER: Former commanders give the Biden administration high marks for building and maintaining a coalition of countries supporting Ukraine financially and militarily. However, one criticism that is constant is the slow pace at which the aid arrives.

“A lot of this could have been done sooner. And then, you know, they’re talking about it potentially being six months, a year or more before the Abrams tanks get there,” Robert GatesOn NBC, you can see former Bush administration defense secretary and Obama administration defence secretary.

“I tend to think we have been a little bit overly risk averse, especially when it came to the tanks,” Retired Gen. David PetraeusFormer commander of U.S. Central Command in a Washington Post Virtual chat yesterday “At some point, we have to give the Ukrainians a longer-range precision munition for the HIMARS, the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System. … And at some point, I think F-16s probably are going to begin to be discussed.”

Petraeus claimed that fears of Russian escalation and its veiled nuclear threats are exaggerated. “I don’t think … Russia wants to pick a fight with a NATO country. I think that they have recognized that use of tactical nuclear weapons would backfire on them. So I’m not sure what their options are. You know, they make these threats. But in every case, they have proven to be empty. And I think that that will continue to be the case.”

US HAS BEEN ‘RISK AVERSE’ IN MILITARY AID TO UKRAINE, PETRAEUS SAYS

ISW: RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE IN COMING MONTHS LIKELY “Western, Ukrainian, and Russian sources continue to indicate that Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive,” According to the Latest assessment From the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War. “An offensive in the coming months is the most likely course of action.

The ISW referred to comments made by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg During his weekend visit to South Korea, he warned that all signs point towards Russia’s preparation for war.

“They are actively acquiring new weapons, more ammunition, ramping up their own production, but also acquiring more weapons from other authoritarian states like Iran and North Korea,” Stoltenberg said. “We don’t see any signs President Putin or the rulers of Moscow are preparing to make peace. We see the exact opposite. We see that they are preparing for more war, that they are mobilizing more soldiers, more than 200,000, and potentially even more than that.”

Stoltenberg urged South Korea to “step up” Ukraine with weapons and ammunition “If you believe in freedom, if you believe in democracy, if you don’t want autocracy and tyranny to win, then they need weapons.”

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin Seoul is today, where at a Joint press conference South Korean Defense Ministry Lee JongsupLee spoke of South Korea “shares the sentiment on the need for international support” Ukraine and is providing the matter “our close attention.”

NATO CHIEF WARNS UKRAINE UKRAINE COULD LOSE WORLD WAR IF THE ‘URGENT NECESSITY’ FOR WEAPONS IS NOT MEET

Good morning, and good luck to everyone Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on DefenseWritten and compiled in Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Stacey Dec. Send an email With tips, suggestions, calendar items and other information. Get current and past issues by signing upDailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. Keep following us on Twitter@dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING RIGHT NOW: The Defense Secretary Austin is finishing his South Korean visit, where he signed an agreement. Joint statement North Korea should be condemned for its behavior “provocations and violations,” With “missile launches and drone incursions” That violate U.S. Security Council Resolutions. The U.S. committed to this statement. “further expand and bolster the level and scale of this year’s combined exercises and training.”

“We’ve deployed 5th generation aircraft F-22s, F-35s, also deployed a carrier strike group to visit the peninsula,” Austin. “You can look for more [of] that kind of activity going forward, but in addition to that, you can look for deeper consultation between our two countries. We will do a number of tabletop exercises to ensure that we’re seeing things eye to eye … to make sure that no stone is left unturned.”

ONE WAGNER DEFECTOR’S STORY: An identification of a man as a former fighter in Ukraine for the Wagner Group gave an Interview with CNN He gave a report last night about poorly trained and equipped convicts being used for cannon fodder and executions of those who refuse or attempt to escape.

As the self-described “fleetor” was identified, Andrei MedvedevHe was a former convict and sought asylum in Norway as a refugee. He told CNN’s Anderson Cooper He was present at the executions.

“Such cases happen very often there. There was a question of how to persuade new recruits who arrived at the front lines and saw what is going on there and decided they don’t want to fight, to still go ahead and fight. They would round up those who did not want to fight and shoot them in front of the newcomers to develop their self-preservation instinct,” Medvedev stated.

“I planned to leave Wagner for a while, but I didn’t have the opportunity. I was afraid I will be captured and shot as a traitor,” He spoke out about his decision to quit the mercenary forces run by Yevgeny Prigozhin. “I am ready for serious action, but I also want to live. By the end, I knew they won’t let me go. I will return as part of the dead or the wounded. It was time to make a radical decision. If it wasn’t for my guys, my comrades, I would have been buried at some training ground.”

KREMLIN DENIES BORIS JOHNSON’S CLAIM of PUTIN TREATENING MISSILE SLICE

INDUSTRY WATCH Northrop Grumman’s board of directors has elected Stephen O’Bryan Effective February 6, he will be the corporate vice president and global development officer. He will report directly to Kathy Warden, chairwoman, CEO, and president, and be responsible for leading the business development organization and enabling the company’s international growth strategy. O’Bryan will succeed David PerryHe has declared his intention to retire on March 31,

CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE WASHINGTON XAMINER

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Biden claims the US will not provide Ukraine fighter jets

Washington ExaminerNATO chief warns Ukraine that if the ‘urgent’ need for weapons is not met, war could be lost

Washington ExaminerNATO’s Stoltenberg warns Russia that it is ‘preparing for war’

Washington Examiner: US has been ‘risk averse’ Petraeus reaffirms his support for Ukraine’s military assistance

Washington Examiner: Zelensky of Ukraine wants faster weapons delivery by the West

Washington Examiner: Boris Johnson denies that Putin threatened a missile strike by the Kremlin

Washington Examiner: Netanyahu hints at displeasure with Russia’s military ties to Iran

Washington Examiner: Gov. Greg Abbott hires Border Patrol agent to serve as Texas border czar

AP: Western unity under pressure because of talk about fighter jets in Kyiv

AP: 5 Ukrainian civilians are killed by warring sides.

New York Times: NATO’s Chief Hints That South Korea Should Consider Military Aid For Ukraine, A Move Seoul Has Resisted.

Stars and Stripes: A Poll shows growing public support for a stronger Japanese defense

Wall Street Journal: Israeli Drone Strike Said To Be Broader Than Iran’s Account

Washington Post: U.S. military poised for new access to key Philippine base

19fortyfive.com: Putin Threatened a Missile Strike Against the UK Before Ukraine Invasion

19fortyfive.com: Putin Will Be Mad: Will France Send Fighter Jets into Ukraine?

Defense News: Turkey Frustrates Finland’s And Sweden’s NATO Bids

19fortyfive.comIt might be time to kick Turkey out of NATO

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Photos: US-Israel Concludes Massive Exercise With F-35s, B-52s and More

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Saltzman: ‘We’re in a Race to Build Combat Credibility Before We’re Put to the Test’

USNI News: Navy Receives Destroyer Carl M. Levin from Bath Irons Works

National Defense Magazine: Navy’s First ‘Extra’ Large Submersibles Unmanned To Go Underwater ‘Very Soon’

The Drive: DARPA’s Hypersonic Cruise Missile Flew Its Final Test, Follow-On To Come

Air & Space Forces MagazineHAWC Hypersonic Scramjet Missile Successfully Tested Last Time

Defense OneDefense Business Brief: Hyten Opens a Shop in the Private Sector

Air & Space Forces MagazineAir Force ROTC Launches a New Scholarship for Older Cadets

Military Times: New Bill Pushes To Ensure South Carolina Marine Base Stays Open

Military.com: ‘That Pisses Me Off’: A Congressman will Lead a Panel on Struggles For Troops, focusing on Food Insecurity and Pay

Marine Corps TimesAll Marines now have the ability to take close to three months of parental leave

New York Times: The Navy’s Dolphins Have a Few Things to Tell Us About Aging

Calendar

TUESDAY | JANUARY 31

8 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Assessing the Future Trajectory of China-Japan Relations,” with Rumi Aoyama, director of the Waseda Institute of Contemporary Chinese Studies; Bonny Lin, director of the CSIS China Power Project; Christopher Johnstone, CSIS Japan chairman; and Jude Blanchette, CSIS China studies chairman https://www.csis.org/events/assessing-future-trajectory-china-japan-relations

9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “The real impact of Western sanctions on Russia,” with Vladimir Milov, vice president of international advocacy at the Free Russia Foundation; Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist of the Institute for International Finance; and Leonid Volkov, head of the Network of Regional Headquarters for Alexei Navalny https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/the-real-impact-of-western-sanctions-on-russia/

11 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. virtual discussion: “A Tale of Two Winters: How Winter is Shaping the War in Ukraine,” with Lesia Vasylenko, member of the Ukrainian Parliament; Kateryna Stepanenko, Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War; Jonathan Katz, director of democracy initiatives at GMFUS; and Sudha David-Wilp, director of the GMFUS Berlin office https://www.gmfus.org/event/tale-two-winters

12:30 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “Moving Beyond Tragedy; Bucha’s Mayor and Deputy Mayor Look to the Future,” Bucha, Ukraine. Mayor Anatolii FedorukBucha, Ukraine Deputy Mayor Mykhailyna Skoryk-Shkarivska Peter RoughDirector, Hudson Center on Europe and Eurasia https://www.hudson.org/events/moving-beyond-tragedy

4:30 p.m. 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion: “A New Atlanticism for a Transitory International Order?” with Heather Conley, president of the German Marshall Fund https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events

6 p.m. 1717 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion: “Holding Russia Liable for Invading Ukraine — Can It Be Done?” with Chiara Giorgetti, professor of law at the University of Richmond School of Law, and Brian Egan, partner at Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom and former legal adviser at the State Department https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events

WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 1

9 a.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress in-person book discussion: No Limits: The Inside Story of China’s War with the West, with author Andrew Small. Register at [email protected]

10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Refugee and Forced Displacement Initiative discussion: “Responding to the Ukrainian Refugee Plight: The EU and US Perspectives,” with Rep. Gerald Connolly (D-VA), president emeritus of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly; Assistant Secretary of State for Population, Refugees, and Migration Julieta Valls Noyes; Michael Koehler, acting director-general for European civil protection and humanitarian aid operations at the European Commission; and former U.S. Ambassador to the Organization on Security and Cooperation in Europe Robin Quinville, director of the Wilson Center’s Global Europe Program https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/responding-ukrainian-refugee-plight

10:45 a.m. — Defense Innovation Board meeting, chaired by Michael Bloomberg. Public portion livestreamed on defense.gov

11:30 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Sustaining support to Ukraine,” with former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/conversation-with-boris-johnson

1 p.m. — Washington Post live virtual discussion: “Ukraine, China, and the International World Order,” with former Defense Secretary Robert Gates https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live

4 p.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion: “Putin’s War or Russia’s War?” with Leonid Volkov, chief of staff for Alexei Navalny; and Sam Greene, director for democratic resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis https://calendar.gwu.edu/putins-war-or-russias-war

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 2

10:30 a.m. 1744 R St. NW — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. discussion: “The Foreign Policy of Technology.” with U.S. Ambassador for Cyberspace and Digital Policy Nathaniel Fick; David Ignatius, columnist at the Washington Post; and former U.S. Ambassador to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Karen Kornbluh, director and senior fellow at the GMFUS’s Digital Innovation and Democracy Initiative and former deputy chief of staff at the Treasury Department https://www.gmfus.org/event/foreign-policy-technology-ambassador-nate-fick

1 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion: “One Year On: Germany’s Foreign Policy Shift and the War in Ukraine,” with German Ambassador to the U.S. Emily Haber; Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova; Steven Sokol, president of the American Council on Germany; Dan Baer, director of the CEIP Europe Program; and Sophia Besch, fellow at CEIP’s Europe Program https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/02/one-year-on-germany-s-foreign-policy-shift

FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 3

12 p.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual discussion: “NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) and Efforts to Reduce Risk and Build Public Trust in Artificial Intelligence,” with Elham Tabassi, chief of staff of the NIST Information Technology Laboratory https://calendar.gwu.edu/nist-and-efforts-reduce-risk-and-build-public-trust-ai

WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 8

6:30 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Virginia — Association of the U.S. Army Coffee Series in-person event featuring Gen. James Rainey, commanding general, U.S. Army Futures Command https://www.ausa.org/events/coffee-series/gen-rainey

MONDAY | FEBRUARY 13

TBA Brussels, Belgium — Press Conference by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg ahead of a two-day meeting of defense ministers https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news

9:30 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW — Stimson Center virtual and in-person discussion: “The End of History? Global Implications of the War in Ukraine” https://www.stimson.org/event/the-end-of-history

TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 14

TBA Brussels, Belgium — Meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group followed by the beginning of a two-day meeting of NATO defense ministers at NATO Headquarters https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news