The Iowa caucuses have a long history of voting glitches and issues
A History of Glitches and Problems Haunts the Iowa Caucuses
A long history of glitches and problems will haunt the Iowa caucuses when they open on Jan. 15, for the state has made a mess of them in several recent election cycles.
For at least three straight presidential races — 2012, 2016, and 2020 — there was confusion over who had won the first-in-the-nation caucuses.
Former President Donald Trump even claimed there was fraud when he lost the caucuses in 2016 to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) during his first White House bid.
In his third presidential run, there will be much pressure for the Iowa Republican Party to declare a definitive winner between Trump, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy or risk not just the ire of the former president but the delegitimizing of the entire Iowa caucuses.
Democrats have already stripped Iowa of its first-place status.
Before Monday’s contests, the Washington Examiner took a look at past times things went awry.
The 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses were a disaster
The most recent debacle for the Iowa caucuses came during the 2020 presidential cycle. The Iowa Democratic Party results were delayed due to technological inconsistencies.
The app that the party used to tally results didn’t work, or users couldn’t even download the app. When caucus chairs attempted to call the backup hotline number to report results, the line was overloaded.
“The process broke down; systematically and individually in many precincts, both people and technology failed,” wrote Joe Rospars, the chief strategist for then-presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.
No winner was declared on Feb. 3, 2020, the day of the caucuses.
The aftermath featured finger-pointing among the state’s Democratic Party leaders and growing calls to strip the state of its first-place status in the primary schedule. Troy Price, the state chairman for Democrats, eventually stepped down from his role.
And in the 2024 cycle, Democrats did replace Iowa in the nominating schedule with South Carolina at the behest of President Joe Biden and the Democratic National Committee. Republicans will hold their Iowa caucuses on Jan. 15, while Democrats will conduct party business and decide on their presidential candidate by mail but won’t release results until Super Tuesday on March 5.
Bernie Sanders declares victory even though he didn’t win
Three days after the Feb. 3, 2020, Iowa Democratic caucuses, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) declared he had won despite the DNC’s then-chairman, Tom Perez, calling for a “recanvass” in the wake of inconclusive results.
Sanders was leading presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg with about 97% of the precincts reporting, but no winner had been declared.
“Our campaign is winning the popular initial vote by some 6,000 votes,” Sanders bragged at a press conference in Manchester, New Hampshire.
But on Feb. 27, 2020, when a partial recount was finished, Buttigieg still led Sanders by the equivalent of one state delegate. The Associated Press said it wouldn’t declare a winner after the recount until the results were certified.
The Iowa Democratic Party certified the results on Feb. 29, 2020, awarding Buttigieg 14 delegates, Sanders 12 delegates, and Warren 8 delegates.
The 2016 Iowa Democratic caucuses cause confusion
Adding insult to the 2020 injury was that the previous election in 2016 also saw Democratic chaos during the Iowa caucuses. Once again, technological problems led to confusion in understanding just who won the caucuses.
Volunteers were untrained and unable to handle the more than 171,000 Democratic voters who participated in the caucuses. Results weren’t announced on Feb. 1, 2016, caucus night, with both presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and Sanders complaining about the reporting process. Then-Democratic state Chairman Andy McGuire called the results “the closest in Iowa Democratic caucus history” at the time.
Clinton was declared the winner on Feb. 2, one day after the caucuses, when she narrowly defeated Sanders.
Roughly a week after the caucuses, the state Democratic Party revised the results due to reporting errors in some precincts. Clinton won 49.84% of the vote and 23 delegates, while Sanders won 49.59% and 21 delegates.
In 2012, Republicans name the wrong winner
Initial results of the Jan. 3, 2012, Iowa GOP caucuses showed then-Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney defeating former Pennsylvania Republican Sen. Rick Santorum by eight votes, although eight precincts hadn’t certified their votes.
Romney went on to win the next nominating contest: the New Hampshire primary. Then came the unwelcome news eight days after winning in the Granite State.
Romney hadn’t actually won the Iowa caucuses; Santorum had won by 34 votes.
“In order to clarify conflicting reports and to affirm the results released January 18 by the Republican Party of Iowa, Chairman Matthew Strawn and the State Central Committee declared Sen. Rick Santorum the winner of the 2012 Iowa Caucus,” the state GOP said in a statement one day after it had said it wouldn’t declare a winner due to incomplete precinct reporting.
It was an awkward and embarrassing situation for the party.
Yet the Santorum campaign was jubilant. “We feel very, very good that we not only won but that we …. pulled off a huge upset,” the former Pennsylvania senator said on CNN’s The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer.
With the delayed victory, Santorum didn’t benefit from the winner’s momentum out of Iowa and was unable to defeat Romney for the presidential nomination.
Iowa caucus winners don’t always win their party nomination
If the past is any indication, just because a candidate wins the Iowa caucuses doesn’t make them a shoo-in for the nomination.
Cruz defeated former President Donald Trump to win Iowa in 2016, but Trump would still receive the nomination. Romney lost Iowa in 2012 but still became the standard-bearer for the GOP.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee won the 2008 GOP Iowa caucuses, only to lose the nomination to the late Sen. John McCain of Arizona. Former President George H.W. Bush won the Iowa caucuses in 1980 only to end up as President Ronald Reagan’s running mate that year. In 1988, then-Vice President Bush lost the Iowa caucuses to then Arkansas Sen. Bob Dole and television evangelist Pat Robertson but would eventually become the GOP presidential nominee.
On the Democratic side, Biden’s 2020 campaign was saved during the South Carolina primary after he lost both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. Former President Bill Clinton lost the Iowa caucuses in 1992 to Tom Harkin, a former Iowa senator, only to end up serving two terms in office. In 1988, Democratic presidential nominee Michael Dukakis lost in Iowa to Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt.
Still, at least one political expert claims that Iowa should remain at the top of the nominating schedule despite its spotty track record and claims that it is unrepresentative of the American public.
Timothy Hagle, a political scientist at the University of Iowa and author of Riding the Caucus Rollercoaster 2020: The Democrats’ Race to Win the Iowa Caucuses, claims that Iowa’s uniqueness comes from its ability to enable lesser-known candidates such as former Illinois Sen. Barack Obama or former Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter to catapult into the White House.
“You can be a little-known governor or senator or something of that nature and basically just show up in people’s living rooms and make your pitch. And then try to grow your campaign from there,” Hagle said. “And if you’re in a big state like California or Texas or New York, you got to have a lot of money and a lot of name recognition to have any kind of a chance at all.”
What impact do the Iowa caucuses have on candidates’ chances of securing the nomination?
16, but Trump went on to secure the Republican nomination and eventually win the presidency. Similarly, Santorum won the Iowa caucuses in 2012, but he was unable to secure the nomination. These examples show that Iowa caucus winners do not always translate their success into a successful nomination bid.
Despite these glitches and problems, the Iowa caucuses remain an important event in the presidential election cycle. They provide a crucial test for candidates, allowing them to gauge their support and momentum early on. The caucuses also offer voters in Iowa a unique opportunity to interact directly with candidates and engage in the democratic process.
Efforts have been made to address the issues that have plagued the Iowa caucuses. Following the 2020 debacle, the Iowa Democratic Party made changes to their processes and vowed to avoid similar problems in the future. The use of new technology and improved training for volunteers are among the measures taken to prevent future errors.
While the Iowa caucuses may continue to face criticisms and challenges, they remain an important and influential part of the presidential election process. Despite their flaws, they offer valuable insights into the preferences and attitudes of voters in a key early state. As the 2024 caucuses approach, it remains to be seen whether the glitches and problems of the past will be resolved, or if new issues will arise. Either way, the history of the Iowa caucuses is a reminder of the imperfections and challenges of our democratic system, and the importance of constantly striving for improvement.
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