The Israel-Hamas Hostage Deal Gives Too Much To Terrorists

There should be no doubt about who deserves the lion’s share of the credit for the cease-fire and release of hostages agreed to by Israel and Hamas. It was President Donald Trump’s tough talk that the hostages taken by Palestinian terrorists on Oct. 7, 2023, had to be released or “all hell” would be unleashed on the Middle East.

The deal was the first salvo in foreign policy from the new administration, taking place even before Trump took office. It did more than demonstrate the vast difference between Trump’s style and former President Joe Biden’s trademark ineffectual weakness. It gave the new president exactly the kind of Inauguration Day optics he wanted, allowing him to usher in his second term with a win in which he was both peacemaker and liberator of hostages.

But while Trump may bask in the applause his intervention in the negotiations generated, it is not quite the triumph that it is being depicted as.

Israelis and decent people everywhere are rejoicing at the freeing of three young women who have been held by Hamas for more than 15 months after Hamas and other Palestinian terrorists invaded 22 southern Israeli communities and a music festival, killing more than 1,000 Israelis. The hostages were held under terrible conditions and likely underwent unspeakable torment. And there will be similar joy if Hamas releases the 30 other hostages that are supposed to be freed in phase one of this deal.

But the price Israel is paying — releasing hundreds of Palestinian terrorists with the blood of innocent people on their hands and withdrawing Israeli forces from most of Gaza — is very problematic for the Jewish state’s security. Trump has said he does not want further involvement in Middle East wars, but it sets up his administration for just that.

In his Dec. 2 Truth Social post, Trump spoke with greater moral clarity about the problem than the world had heard from the Biden administration during the entire course of the Israel-Hamas war. Trump’s threat was interpreted to be directed at Hamas and its allies, such as Qatar, Iran, and possibly even Turkey, which has also strongly supported the terrorist group.

Envoy’s Negotiations

But once Trump sent his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff to the Middle East, it became clear that he was just as interested in muscling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Witkoff praised Qatar’s government — which plays a double game allying itself with Iran and funding Hamas while also claiming to be friendly with the United States — as “doing God’s work” to get an agreement. Witkoff’s argument to Netanyahu “was basically ‘It’s up to you … either you do the cease-fire and we start the relationship, or you don’t do the cease-fire [and] you don’t give the incoming president what he wants. Then we can’t promise we’ll be engaging the way you want us to,’” according to The Washington Post.

Withdrawing from Gaza

The substance of the agreement is problematic if Trump’s goal is to help eradicate Hamas and ensure that the group can’t make good on their promise to repeat the Oct. 7 atrocities.

The war is not going to end by Israel withdrawing from most of Gaza and some other entity taking charge of the Strip. Hamas will take control of any territory Israel leaves. On Oct. 6, 2023, Gaza wasn’t occupied, since Israel had withdrawn every soldier, settler, and settlement from it in 2005. It was an independent Palestinian state in all but name, run by an Islamist terrorist organization pledged to destroying Israel and accomplishing the genocide of its people — Oct. 7 was only the trailer of what they wished to do.

Hostages Left Behind

Another huge fault with the negotiation is that most of the hostages are not being released in phase one. Once Israel withdraws and Hamas begins the process of reorganizing and rearming, it is doubtful that Hamas will keep its deal for phase two and three, when the more than 60 remaining hostages are supposed to be released. Witkoff did not obtain the release in phase one of all seven American citizens who are still held hostage by the terrorists. Five will still be in their hands when phase one ends.

Seen in that context, the deal is a gift to Hamas and Iran. The wild celebrations in Gaza about the cease-fire, along with the crowds menacing the released hostages in their last moments of Hamas control, make two points clear.

As polls of Palestinians have shown throughout the conflict, contrary to Biden’s assurances, Hamas is popular with its own people, as were the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks. Hundreds of released terrorists who murdered Israelis received a hero’s welcome. Hamas has achieved one of its goals — to blackmail Jerusalem into freeing imprisoned Palestinian murderers. A cease-fire with Hamas still standing is also a victory for them. Israeli withdrawal means there is nothing in the deal that will effectively prevent Hamas from resuming the war.

False Premises

Witkoff’s talk of visiting Gaza and of instilling its people with hope sounds nice, but it is exactly the sort of pious sentiment Biden’s people would utter. It is premised on belief in a two-state solution that the Palestinians have made clear they have no interest in, as their support for Oct 7 shows. Trump had exposed the two-state solution as just another establishment myth by the end of his first term, with the negotiation of the Abraham Accords that prevented the Palestinians from continuing to veto peace with other Arabs. But Witkoff seems to have been sucked back into the same thinking of those staffing the Obama and Biden administrations.

We’re hearing encouraging rhetoric from the Trump team, such as secretary of defense nominee Pete Hegseth, about support for Israeli efforts to stamp out Hamas and other Iranian-funded terrorists. And it’s probably fair to assume that Witkoff has assured the Israelis that Trump will have their back when Hamas derails the second phase of the agreement. But if the Trump team opposes handing Gaza back to Hamas (and there’s no reason to doubt it), why didn’t Trump and Witkoff use their leverage to insist on a cease-fire that will avoid such an outcome? Wouldn’t Israel and the United States be better off not empowering Hamas?

This puts Trump in a position where he will soon have to choose, as Biden did, between full-throated support for the inevitable Israeli counter-attacks into Gaza and a policy of pressuring Jerusalem to simply endure the pain of terrorism as their due. It is a mistake to insist, as some Trump supporters will, that Israel can do this easily or that there will be no political cost to the new administration, which owns this cease-fire. There will be the cost in casualties for both sides and it would diplomatically weaken an already isolated Jewish state, no matter Hamas’ provocations.

The president will also be forced to choose between letting Iran off the hook for its behavior or armed conflict, possibly involving U.S. forces, such as to protect international shipping from Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen.

There will be a cease-fire of some sort in Gaza for which Trump can claim credit. Still, the cost he is asking Israel to pay for freeing only some of the hostages is handing Hamas and Iran an undeserved victory. This is exactly the sort of mistake that Biden made time and again, as well as the sort of strategic blunder Trump managed to avoid in his first term. Those who have high hopes that Trump 2.0 will reverse Biden’s folly abroad and at home should not be celebrating this deal.

Jonathan S. Tobin is a senior contributor to The Federalist, editor in chief of JNS.org, and a columnist for Newsweek. Follow him on Twitter at @jonathans_tobin.