Political ad spending for 2024 Senate races expected to shatter records

Campaign advertising for Senate races in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Montana will dominate investments this 2024 election cycle, signaling the most important battlegrounds for control of the upper chamber.

So far there have been $723 million worth of campaign ad buys for the three states, according to AdImpact data, reported by Axios. The figures include ad reservations made as of Aug. 7 through Election Day.

Most of the money is going to the Ohio Senate race where Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is embroiled in one of the most high-stakes reelection battles against GOP opponent Bernie Moreno. The race has become 2024’s first non-presidential race to exceed $300 million in spending, and it’s also one of the most expensive races that the political ad tracking firm has seen.

The only state in which Republicans have been outspending Democrats on campaign ads and reservations is Ohio, where they have spent $158.4 million compared to $152 million from Democrats. The majority of the cash is coming in from outside groups such as the Democratic Duty and Honor group, which invested $28.7 million and represents 51% of Democratic spending, while the Republican group One Nation spent $27.6 million, which represents 82% of Republican spending. Meanwhile, the Brown campaign has spent $27.6 million, compared to Moreno’s $875,000. 

The races between Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) and Republican Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania and Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Republican Tim Sheehy in Montana came in second and third place for spending for both parties. In Pennsylvania, Democrats have spent $111.2 million compared to Republicans’ $96.2 million. In Montana, Democrats have invested $110 million compared to Republicans’ $95 million. 

Nevada comes in fifth place on the list, with Democrats spending $72.2 million compared to Republicans’ $12 million. Michigan, another state with a competitive open Senate race, ranks eighth, with Democrats spending $43.2 million and Republicans are spending $26.9 million.  

Historically, Democrats have had a fundraising advantage over Republicans, who are attempting to maximize the use of their dollars as they attempt to take back the Senate. They will gain control if they flip just one additional seat in addition to their likely pickup in West Virginia after the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV).

A major aspect of Republicans’ strategy has been recruiting wealthy candidates who can inject their own cash and those of their supporters into the race. They have also focused on beating incumbents in states where former President Donald Trump won easily in 2020, such as Ohio and Montana. 

As the general election season ramps up, both sides are expected to dump in more money as November approaches.