The Not-So-Great Migration: How America’s ‘Electoral Refugees’ Influenced The 2022 Midterms

Many voters on the Right, myself included, are justifiably angry about just how wrong every single poll, prediction, and political figurehead was about the prospects of the 2022 midterm elections.

To be fair to the pollsters, this was not an abnormal event. Polls are regularly wrong — sometimes in spectacular fashion. It is all too easy to mock the ‘science’ of polling. But why is nobody discussing an obvious, critical factor that helped to decide the midterms?

Migration.

Not immigration, not illegal immigration, but domestic migration. Registered American voters moving from blue states to red.

According to an analysis of the 2020 U.S. Census by Cornell University, between the summers of 2020 and 2021 New York City lost approximately 1.58% of its total population. That is a staggering number, which equates to over 350,000 fleeing residents in a twelve month span.

New York City is certainly not the only area experiencing this phenomenon. Based on data from the Florida Department of Motor Vehicles, the Washington Post reports from January to September of this year, Florida has received 321,881 requests from individuals wishing to exchange their out-of-state driver’s license for a Florida license. This number shatters the previously held record.

Former residents of the Big Apple make up 41,885 of these 321,881 requests. This would break the previously held annual record of residents moving from New York to Florida. The other states currently scheduled to break records for exchanges of Florida driver’s licenses this year are: California, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Oregon and Washington.

Noticing a trend?

All of this suggests we could be entering into unknown territory in terms of America’s future political landscape.

Congressman Lee Zeldin very nearly pulled off what would have been one of the major generational upsets in the New York Governor’s race. Republicans won the popular vote, and the Democrats had virtually nothing to offer voters in the way of policy or hope. So what happened?

Well, the red states turned crimson, and the blue states turned navy. Could it be that simple? If all of the conservatives who fled New York City had voted for Zeldin, could he have won? How ironic it is that the 350,000 people lost from New York City in 2021 is almost the exact number of votes which Lee Zeldin lost by.

Let us not forget that Donald Trump won Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016. Wave goodbye to that. These states are bleeding conservative residents at never before seen rates, yet they will retain their electoral votes until at least 2030. This is a major mathematical problem for Republicans, with just those two states currently holding 34 electoral votes.

It wasn’t the blue haired college students or the pansexual librarians who were fleeing these states. It was the people desperate to protect their families from a seemingly unimaginable barrage of tyranny being directed at them from leaders of deep blue cities.

Ron DeSantis just had a historically large win in his gubernatorial election, and yes, he has been simply amazing in his office, but is it just that? It seems more likely that the 3.78% increase in population that Florida has seen since 2018 could be responsible.

The problem with all of this: the Republicans will not win another national election if the electoral map remains situated in this manner; they will also struggle in state elections in what were previously considered “Swing States” but are now just plain blue.

Blame the Orange Man, blame the R.N.C., blame the pollsters, but could it really just be a geographical problem at this point?

The next U.S. census is scheduled for 2030, and maybe it will provide some justice in terms of electoral apportionment, but in the meantime the Right must develop a strategy that contends with reality.

Eric Butler is a paralegal at The Daily Wire and holds a degree in political science.

The views expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The Daily Wire. 

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