The U.S.–South Korea Alliance Is Back

South Korea’s President Yoon Seok-Yeol Visits Washington, DC

Exciting news! South Korea’s President Yoon Seok-Yeol recently visited Washington, DC and received a full state visit, complete with a dinner where he even karaoke’d for the audience. This level of comity at the top between the US and South Korea hasn’t been seen in years, especially after the strained relationship between former US President Donald Trump and former South Korean President Moon Jae-In.

But things are different now. President Yoon and President Biden seem to genuinely like each other, with Yoon even receiving standing ovations when he spoke in front of Congress. The summit resulted in two major alliance shifts, one on South Korea’s growing interest in nuclear weapons and the other on South Korea’s potential involvement in a Taiwan scenario.

South Korea Will Not Develop Nuclear Weapons – At Least For Now

The biggest news of the ‘Washington Declaration’ is the derailment of South Korea’s newly rekindled interest in nuclear weapons. This is a significant development, as North Korea can now strike the US with a nuclear weapon, which might lead the US to hesitate to fully fight for South Korea. The US foreign policy community adamantly opposes South Korean nuclearization, and the Biden administration probably made South Korea’s re-commitment to foregoing these weapons a prerequisite for the state visit.

In return, South Korea received further assurances of America’s security commitment, plus a nuclear consultative committee with the US. It is unclear how much this committee will actually permit South Korea to jointly plan US nuclear policy in East Asia, but it’s a step in the right direction.

South Korea’s Increasingly Public Stance Against a Chinese Attack on Taiwan

Another significant development from the summit is President Yoon’s increasingly vocal support for Taiwan. South Korea and Japan have traditionally avoided speaking on this topic because of their extensive trading relationships with China and their proximity to the country. However, the Ukraine War and China’s hawkish turn under current President Xi Jinping seems to have provoked a re-evaluation.

China could have exploited the fissures between South Korea and Japan and pulled South Korea toward it if it had acted as a responsible regional leader. Instead, China bullied South Korea for installing missile defense against North Korean rockets and did nothing to push North Korea toward better behavior. The result is that South Koreans now detest China, giving Yoon the political space to more openly align with America against it.

China’s Missed Opportunity

South Korea’s interest in nuclear weapons and increasing alignment with Taiwan are a serious failure of Chinese foreign policy. Japan was always going to line up with the US against China in a conflict, but South Korea had more room to move. As a smaller economy, its alignment against China is not as important, and its geographic placement so close to China long meant US officials were wary of pressuring it too much.

China could have gained credit for helping to blunt the North Korean nuclear and missile program, but instead, it bullied South Korea and did nothing to push North Korea toward better behavior. This has resulted in South Koreans detesting China and giving Yoon the political space to more openly align with America against it.

Dr. Robert E. Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly; RoberEdwinKelly.com) is a professor in the Department of Political Science at Pusan National University and 19FortyFive Contributing Editor.