Three red state Democratic senators in different places going into 2024

Senate Democrats Facing Uphill Battle in 2024 Election

Democrats in the Senate, playing defense in several battleground states, are facing an uphill battle in the 2024 election. Of the 34 Senate seats up for grabs in next year’s election, three are Democratic-held seats in heavily Republican states. Here is a look at the standing of those three senators going into the 2024 election.

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Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT)

Tester appears to be in the best situation of the three most vulnerable Democrats. A poll shows he has significantly higher marks in approval rating among all voters and those who disapprove of President Joe Biden than the other incumbents in seats that are likely to be tight races in 2024.

• A Morning Consult poll conducted from January through March showed Tester has an approval rating of 42% among voters who disapprove of Biden in his state, and his disapproval rate is 49%.
• It also showed that 25% more voters rate Tester favorably than unfavorably in Montana.

Tester also has a leg up on the other vulnerable Democrats because of the perceived lack of a strong candidate on the GOP side. Reps. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) and Ryan Zinke (R-MT) are the two likeliest challengers, but Rosendale lost to Tester in the 2018 Senate race. Zinke was elected to the House in 2022 after serving as interior secretary but resigned after an ethics scandal.

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV)

Manchin is the most in danger of the incumbent Democrats and is the only one who has not announced a reelection bid.

• Popular Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) announced on Thursday that he is running for Manchin’s seat, further adding to Manchin’s uphill battle if he decides to run.
• Justice has consistently had a higher approval rating in West Virginia. Justice has an approval rating of 66%, per the Morning Consult poll, while Manchin’s approval rating is 38%.

The other GOP challenger is Rep. Alex Mooney (R-WV), who would also be a difficult opponent for Manchin in a state that voted for former President Donald Trump by nearly 40% in 2020.

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)

Brown is also in danger of losing his seat representing the Buckeye State as the state becomes increasingly Republican. Despite the challenging race ahead, Brown announced he is running for reelection.

• Two Republicans who ran for Ohio’s other Senate seat in 2022 are putting their hats in the ring for 2024. Bernie Moreno, who aligns himself with the Trump wing of the GOP, and Matt Dolan are running in the Republican primary.

In 2022, now-Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) won the open Ohio Senate seat over then-Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan by 6 percentage points. The 2024 race in the Buckeye State is currently rated as a “toss up” by the Cook Political Report.

Republicans only have to defend 11 seats, while Democrats must defend 23 seats, including three held by independent senators who caucus with Democrats.

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