Challenges of third parties in the upcoming election highlighted by No Labels withdrawal

A presidential election rematch in 2024 between Joe Biden and Donald Trump has helped pave the way for renewed interest in third-party candidates. The most dominant interloper is Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is currently polling at a healthy 11.7%, and is being taken seriously, particularly by the Democratic National Committee. This cycle has also seen No Labels threaten, and then fail, to field an alternative candidate, which nonetheless points to voters seeking an alternative to the status quo. This Washington Examiner series, Three’s a Crowd, will look at how and why third-party candidates could play a major spoiler come November. Part two will take a closer look at the fall of No Labels and what that could mean for other third-party attempts.

After months of dominating headlines and garnering national attention for its highly anticipated presidential run, No Labels abruptly announced late last week it would not follow through with a third-party ticket after all — underscoring the challenges any outside candidate must face ahead of the 2024 election.

By the time No Labels pulled the plug on its alternative presidential ticket, the group had only managed to secure access for the 2024 ballot in 21 states despite initial expectations it would qualify in 28 states by the end of 2023. Things were only made more complicated for the third-party group when all its top contenders for the ticket declined the invitation.

One of the group’s choices was retiring Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), who surprised many supporters after he announced in February he would not pursue a presidential bid, arguing he did not want to support any effort that could help reelect former President Donald Trump.

The group was dealt another blow after another top contender, former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, declined to run for president, instead mounting a high-profile Senate bid. Other candidates the group sought to add to its ticket, such as former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY), independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), and even Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, according to the Wall Street Journal, shot down the offer.

“No Labels has always said we would only offer our ballot line to a ticket if we could identify candidates with a credible path to winning the White House,” the group said in a statement on Thursday. “No such candidates emerged, so the responsible course of action is for us to stand down.”

But its failure to garner enough support nationwide is a warning sign to any third-party candidates that an alternative bid might just be too risky.

Initial polls early in the 2024 cycle last year suggested voters did not want to see a rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden. That sparked interest among several outside groups, including No Labels, to pursue a third-party ticket, assuming there would be sufficient support to overcome both candidates.

The group initially budgeted $70 million to boost its 2024 efforts, a massive war chest that never managed to make it off the ground. No Labels had reportedly raised millions of dollars in 2021 and 2022, according to its most recent tax filings, but the group had also garnered criticism for its reluctance to disclose its donors.

However, the group managed to raise funds based on its polls indicating that voters overwhelmingly supported an alternative ticket in 2024. But that support never materialized.

Despite the early data, voters nonetheless managed to come out in massive support for Biden and Trump, who both easily secured their parties’ nominations. That raises questions for other candidates, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running as an independent.

Kennedy has only gained access to six states so far, making his campaign a long-shot bid to topple either Biden or Trump.

The departure of No Labels from the 2024 race was met with praise as the group had garnered widespread criticism from both sides of the aisle. Democrats especially decried the efforts, arguing any third-party ticket would spoil the election for President Joe Biden by siphoning votes away and handing the White House to former President Donald Trump.

“We were the first to warn that No Labels’ presidential bid was doomed, dangerous, and would divide the anti-Trump coalition,” Matt Bennett, Third Way’s executive vice president for public affairs, said in a statement.

Third Way, a public policy think tank based in Washington, D.C., said it had waged a campaign urging any prospective candidates from joining the ticket.

“We are deeply relieved that everyone rejected their offer, forcing them to stand down,” Bennett said. “While the threat of third-party spoilers remains, this uniquely damaging attack on President Biden and Democrats from the center has at last ended.”

With No Labels now out of the picture, its short-lived moment in the spotlight leaves several unanswered questions: What was the point and what comes next?

Spokespeople for the group say the failed 2024 attempt is not the end of its attempts to launch a presidential ticket. In fact, they said, it is only the beginning — indicating the group will attempt another third-party bid in 2028.

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“We will remain engaged over the next year during what is likely to be the most divisive presidential election of our lifetimes,” the group said. “We will promote dialogue around major policy challenges and call out both sides when they speak and act in bad faith. For now, suffice it to say that this movement is not done.”