Tim Scott’s tactics may push DeSantis down from second position.
2024 GOP Primary Election: A Battle for the Top Spot
What once appeared to be a two-lane 2024 GOP primary election is now splintering into several viable candidates aiming to defeat front-runner Donald Trump. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), in particular, could force his way up and push Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) out of second place to take on the former president.
Scott’s Rise in the Polls
Scott is polling moderately, hovering around fifth or sixth place in national polls with a RealClearPolitics average of 3%. However, as the GOP primary’s top ad spender, Scott is picking up support in battleground states such as Iowa and South Carolina, a sign he could break into the top tier of candidates.
Voters in South Carolina, in particular, have made it clear Trump is their top choice. However, they indicated their home state senator is a viable alternative.
“The word ‘happy warrior’ gets tossed around a lot, but [Scott] has a positive message and he has something different to offer,” said Dan Blum, vice president of Mair Strategies.
Personal Messaging over Mudslinging
Scott’s campaign, “Faith in America,” has appealed to voters both in and out of the Republican Party, focusing on rebuilding the country through an “optimistic” lens without offering any heavy criticism of his opponents. He’s drawn on personal experiences as a black Republican in politics to appeal to minority voters, as well.
“He’s pretty darn good at retail,” Blum said of Scott, adding that he thinks the South Carolina senator will continue to move up in the polls and attract voters if he continues to follow his own personal narrative.
“Tim Scott will continue to share his message of optimism that is anchored in conservative values. The more people get to know Tim Scott, the more they are attracted to his vision to restore hope and defend the American dream,” campaign spokeswoman Nicole Morales said to the Washington Examiner. “Tim has the message, resources, and the fight to compete anywhere. That’s why the Left fears him the most.”
Scott vs. DeSantis: A Battle for the Moderate Republicans
Blum said the difference between Scott and DeSantis is that the Florida governor has positioned himself as the alternative to Trump “minus the scandal.”
“Scott presents a little more appeal to the establishment Republicans and much more appeal to the moderate Republican,” Blum said. “So, what I think [Scott’s] done is trying to position himself as a candidate for the voters who aren’t sold on Trump anymore, as opposed to trying to steal votes from Trump directly, which is kind of what DeSantis is doing.”
Shifting Dynamics in the Race
Trump holds a 52.4% RealClearPolitics average, with DeSantis steadily remaining in second place with 18.4%. However, there is a catch: DeSantis’s polling averages are stagnating or slightly decreasing, a significant shift from when he launched his campaign.
At the same time, candidates such as Scott, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley are moving up in the polls. Haley reached second place in a South Carolina poll, and Ramaswamy remains in third place overall in RealClearPolitics averages.
AdStrategies reported this week that Scott has spent over $15 million more than DeSantis, particularly in battleground states. Scott purchased 64% of political ads in Iowa and 62% in New Hampshire.
Jamie Miller, Florida director of People Who Think, said many thought that when DeSantis entered the race, the 2024 GOP primary would go into three lanes: Trump, the Florida governor, and everyone else.
Now, he said, it looks like candidates such as Haley and Scott are finding their own path to separate themselves from the large pool of candidates. However, it’s hard to tell whether these candidates are breaking out or “if the stumbles are putting them all back in the starting gate,” Miller said.
“Momentum matters. And right now, Ron DeSantis does not appear to have it,” Miller said, pointing to state polls like South Carolina.
Strategists have admitted that it’s hard to pinpoint why DeSantis’s campaign is beginning to fizzle out, especially with recent staff changes and less cash on hand than Scott or Trump.
Blum said he thinks the Florida governor may be focusing on the wrong things, which could be why voters are losing confidence in his viability.
“DeSantis doesn’t have a bad personal narrative. … He has a good personal narrative, but I never hear him talk about it,” Blum said, adding that he typically focuses on blasting Trump or the Biden administration or on polarizing, hot-button topics that alienate voters.
Miller said candidates have to focus on how to “spend your oxygen.” In DeSantis’s case, he is spending too much time arguing against critics and putting up walls, like Jeb Bush in 2016.
“Instead of pivoting into his strength, he was just like, people would attack and [he’d] be like, ‘No, no, no, I’m right,’” Miller said of Bush, comparing his tactics to DeSantis. “‘This is why I’m right’ and try to explain why he’s right instead of using his oxygen to pivot into telling people what they really want to hear about him” as a candidate.
However, Andrew Romeo, DeSantis’s communications director, said in a statement to the Washington Examiner that there are only two viable options for the GOP nomination.
“No matter how much the media and D.C. elites try to destroy Ron DeSantis, they can’t change the fact that this is a two-man race for the nomination,” Romeo said. “Ron DeSantis is ready to prove the doubters wrong yet again and our campaign is prepared to execute on his vision for the Great American Comeback as we transition into the next phase of winning this primary and beating Joe Biden.”
The RNC Debate: A Chance for Other Candidates
Both Blum and Miller agreed that the Republican National Committee debate, occurring on Aug. 23, will be all about perception. The former president has not committed to attending the debate, saying he does not feel like he has to.
Miller said this will serve as an advantage to the other GOP candidates.
“If Trump’s not there, he is giving the person who’s willing to do that — the oxygen to have their own lane,” Miller said.
Blum said the debate will give Scott and other candidates hoping to break into the top three a chance to attract voters who haven’t been paying close attention to the 2024 election.
“We have the folks in Iowa and the folks in New Hampshire in South Carolina that are very tuned in and are trying to pick their candidate now so they can get behind and do the work to help them. That’s not everybody,” Blum said.
“You know, there’s gonna be a lot of people who probably aren’t tuning in until the first day. They aren’t paying that much attention yet,” Blum continued. “So for a lot of people, it’s going to be sort of their first look at these groups of candidates. And so for each of them, I’d say just really try and figure out: What is your message?”
He said Scott may have a distinct advantage during the debate given his experience on the campaign trail and in Congress.
“He’s well versed in pitching his personal narrative,” Blum said of Scott. “Sharing that narrative is going to be much easier for him than someone who hasn’t been doing it much.”
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