Tim Sheehy gets edge over Jon Tester in key Montana Senate battle – Washington Examiner
The Montana Senate race has recently seen a change in its outlook from a nonpartisan election forecaster, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which has shifted its rating from “toss-up” to “leans Republican.” This change is significant for Republican candidate Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL, who is aiming to unseat Democratic Senator Jon Tester, considered the most vulnerable Senate Democrat in the upcoming election crucial for maintaining their slim majority. Recent polling indicates Tester trailing Sheehy by eight percentage points, which has contributed to the forecaster’s decision. The political landscape in Montana, where Donald Trump won by a significant margin in 2020, suggests a challenging environment for the Democrats as they seek to defend several competitive Senate seats to retain their majority.
Tim Sheehy gets ratings edge over Jon Tester in Montana Senate battle
A lead nonpartisan elections forecaster changed its outlook Friday on the closely watched Montana Senate race, switching the rating from “toss-up” to “lean Republican.”
The shift from Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball is welcome news for Republican and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, who’s gunning to oust Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) in what is Senate Democrats’ most vulnerable seat that is crucial to maintaining their slim majority.
If the outlook holds true, Republicans would seal their majority fate. Democrats must defend Montana, where former President Donald Trump won by 16 points in 2020, and another seven competitive seats they currently hold to keep the majority.
A poll released Thursday showed Tester down by eight percentage points to Sheehy, at 49%-41%, a leading contributor to Crystal Ball tipping the race in the GOP’s favor, a reversal of a day earlier. The average of recent polls shows Tester down by roughly 4.5 points.
NEW: Crystal Ball Senate Rating Change –>
Montana: Toss-up to Leans Republican
(See link for explanation as to why we’re doing this today after not doing it yesterday)
51 Sen seats now Safe/Likely/Lean R in our ratings, solidifying R Senate edgehttps://t.co/IjeFKGhDvZ pic.twitter.com/VFAnkuFNFs
— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) September 6, 2024
Other nonpartisan elections forecasters, including the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections, still consider Montana a “toss-up” for the Senate.
Neither campaign responded to requests for comment.
Enshrining abortion rights into Montana’s constitution will come before voters in Big Sky Country this November after receiving enough signatures to appear on the ballot, buoying Democrats’ hopes that it will help Tester secure a fourth term in the red state.
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