Top pollster calling it quits after Iowa election prediction gaffe – Washington Examiner
Top pollster Ann Selzer is resigning from the *Des Moines Register* Iowa Poll following a significant miscalculation in her recent election predictions. Just days before the election, Selzer’s poll suggested that Vice President Kamala Harris was ahead of former President Donald Trump by three points in Iowa, a state that ultimately Trump won by over 13 points. This error has brought attention to her decision to leave, although Selzer clarifies that her departure was planned long before the election and is not a retirement. She expressed regret that she could not announce her resignation after a more accurate final poll, calling the timing “ironic.” Selzer indicated her intention to continue with different work outside of election polling after her contract expired, a decision she made over a year ago.
Top pollster calling it quits after Iowa election prediction gaffe
Just a few weeks after a presidential election prediction in the state of Iowa was dead wrong, top pollster Ann Selzer is resigning from the Des Moines Register Iowa Poll.
The highly-regarded Iowa Poll returned a shocking result just three days before the election this year, showing Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of then-former President Donald Trump by 3 percentage points in the reliably red state.
At the time, Selzer said, “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming. She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”
Trump ended up winning the state on Election Day by over 13 percentage points.
In a post on X on Sunday, Selzer insisted that she is not retiring but that it has been a “long-time plan” that this would be the last election she would conduct polling for.
“Oh, and mentions of ‘retirement’ are inaccurate. It’s been a long-time plan that this election would be my last work of this sort. Other work continues,” she said.
She also penned a guest column in the Des Moines Register explaining her departure, in which she said that it is purely “ironic” her leaving comes just after such a shocking miscalculation.
“Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course. It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite. I am proud of the work I’ve done for the Register,” Selzer said.
Selzer also explained that she made the decision to let her contract with the newspaper expire “over a year ago.”
Still, the timeline of the polling error and Selzer’s announcement of her departure from election polling did not escape the musing and ire of Trump, who accused Selzer of “election fraud” and vowed an investigation into it in a post on Truth Social.
“A totally Fake poll that caused great distrust and uncertainty at a very critical time. She knew exactly what she was doing. Thank you to the GREAT PEOPLE OF IOWA for giving me such a record breaking vote, despite possible ELECTION FRAUD by Ann Selzer and the now discredited ‘newspaper’ for which she works. An investigation is fully called for!” he said.
Before this election, the Selzer polls had historically been very accurate. In the 2020 presidential election, it predicted a Republican margin of 7 points in Iowa. Trump won the state over then-candidate Joe Biden by 8 points that year.
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