Top Pollster: Republican Voters ‘Virtually Impossible To Poll’ After Biden’s ‘MAGA Republicans’ Speech
A top independent pollster said that polls may significantly undercount Republican voters and supporters of former President Donald Trump following President Joe Biden’s attack on “MAGA Republicans” earlier this month.
On Saturday, Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly wrote that Biden’s speech will make it more difficult to survey Trump voters than in prior years. Cahaly noted that in 2016, a number of presidential polls and predictions regarding Trump and opponent Hillary Clinton proved to be inaccurate.
“In 2016 Trump supporters were called ‘Deplorables’ and other unflattering names,” Cahaly said on Twitter. “This was a major contributor to the ‘shy Trump voter’ phenomenon that ‘most’ polling missed which resulted in a major loss in public confidence for polling flowing the election.”
And in 2020, “people who supported Trump or espoused conservative values out of step with ‘Woke’ culture found themselves being ‘canceled’ or ‘doxed,’” Cahaly continued.
“This led to ‘hidden voters’ that ‘most’ polling under counted, therefore Trump support in key battleground states exceeded expectations. Now [the] Biden administration has essentially classified ‘MAGA Republicans’ as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them,” the pollster wrote. “This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate.”
He was making reference to Biden’s Sept. 1 speech that targeted “MAGA Republicans” as a threat to U.S. institutions, just weeks after the FBI raided Trump’s Florida residence. Speaking in front of a red backdrop and flanked by two Marines, Biden claimed Trump and his supporters “represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic.”
U.S. President Joe Biden delivers a primetime speech at Independence National Historical Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on Sept. 1, 2022. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)
Describing this new group as “submerged voters,” Cahaly wrote that these people
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