Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, held by Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), has shifted from being a toss-up to being considered “Lean Democratic,” according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The move comes after a pair of nonpartisan polls were released over the last week showing Bacon trailing his Democratic opponent, state Sen. Tony Vargas. 

Vargas leads Bacon by 4 points in a recent New York Times-Siena College poll, while another poll by CNN and SSRS found the Democrat leading the GOP incumbent by 6 points. Those two polls also found Vice President Kamala Harris with advantages in that district, leading former President Donald Trump by 9 points and 11 points, respectively. 

That gives Democrats an advantage in a district that could determine which party will take control of the House next year. 

However, Bacon’s fate is not sealed. The Republican incumbent has won close races before, even when initial polling showed him behind, his campaign noted.

He was first elected in 2016 after defeating then-Rep. Brad Ashford, a Democrat, by just 1 point, before slightly increasing that lead to defeat Democratic challenger Kara Eastman by 2 points in 2018. 

He then was reelected by 5 points in 2020, even as President Joe Biden won the district’s Electoral College vote. Bacon then defeated Vargas by 3 points last year, setting the stage for a tight rematch in a district that is poised once again to award its lone electoral vote to the Democratic nominee. 

“Every election cycle we are shown behind in the polls and some rankings, but we always end up with the win,” Bacon’s campaign said in a statement. “This cycle, we are being significantly outspent with outside democrat dollars flowing into the district because of the split electoral vote, but we will not be out-worked. We fully expect to win on Nov. 4.”

Nebraska operates under a congressional district method, meaning the state allocates two electoral votes to the candidate who wins the statewide popular vote and then awards one electoral vote to the winner of the popular vote in each congressional district. Nebraska has three congressional districts, creating four popular vote contests in the state, often leading to a split electoral outcome.

Republicans sought to change state law by switching Nebraska to a winner-takes-all system, an effort that was shot down due to a lack of support among state legislators. 

Now, the lone electoral vote could be what breaks a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College, a distinct possibility given the 2024 map, and both campaigns are pouring resources into the district to ensure a victory.